Pues paseándome por el un subreddit interesante planteaban como estaba el tema para los próximos años a nivel geostratégico. Y hubo dos respuestas interesantes, pero sobre todo una.
> Short term horizon:
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> **The big race IMO is AI, that seems to lead to the next divergence - first to AGI (artificial general intelligence & soon after super intelligence)will have a headstart in shaping and dominating the 21st century ala Britain at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution**. Quantum computing may also be disruptive in the same fashion, but has more niche influences & doesn't seem to be a standalone path to hegemony like AGI could be. There are high profile voices such as Deep Mind CEO Demis Hassabis that predict AGI within a few years. We're getting close.
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> Current geopolitical scene:
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> Ukraine - Russia war remains the key issue. We could start seeing the result solidify if it becomes clear US support is untenable & a possible Trump presidency looms ever closer. A commited US might be enough to hold the line but it's hard to see a comprehensive outcome for Ukraine given it will likely never receive the scale and quality of support it needs to force Russia out. Stalemate/Ukraine loss is the binary here.
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> Israel/Hamas - over exposed due to the endearment Palestinians have with the West/activist class. Not consequential in purely geopolitical terms.
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> Venezuela - unlikely to evolve into a hot war. Maduro is posturing/perhaps testing the waters, with prodding from Russia.
Muy importante esto! Es verdad. El que domine la AI se va a follar a todos los demás pero con tranquilidad además. USA, como siempre hace, ya ha puesto las bases de la infraestructura del futuro AI. Tanto procesadores gráficos para cálculos masivos, ordenadores cuánticos y los modelos. Nos van a freir vivos.
Otra cosa importante es el último párrafo. Venezuela. POR SUPUESTO que VEnezuela (y en esto no había caído) diciendo que va a ocupar la Guyana se encuadra totalmente en el modelo "cuanto peor mejor" ruso. Son obvias las conexiones con rusia y está claro que quieren abrir otro frente porque los moros no les valen que no van a ningún lado.
Y luego este comentario que es también muy revelador
> All of the chaos you see is orchestrated by Russia. Russia's been desperately acting as a spoiler since at least 2008.
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> **This is the last gasp of the oil producers. Their power is waning gradually as renewables relentlessly increase their share of the world's energy budget. They're trying to goose the oil price to keep themselves from bankruptcy, while also grabbing for whatever resources they can get, as in Venezuela going after Guyana. The timing of Venezuela/Guyana, Israel/Hamas, Azerbaijan/Armenia is all tied to Russia wanting to sow maximum chaos to keep the US off balance.**
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> None of which will work, not without China going into Taiwan, and Xi is too smart to play along with Putin on that one. The Chinese tolerate Russia, and find them occasionally useful. But they understand that Russia's a pimple on the ass of the world economy, and when the real big boys meet they just point at Moscow and laugh. They ain't going into Taiwan to satisfy Putin's playbook, and without that Russia is toast.
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> **Trump won't win again. Anyone who thinks so hasn't been following US politics closely. Candidates backed by Trump in the GOP have been unceremoniously rejected by the voters.** Ann Coulter is apoplectic about this, just ask her. Trump is a loser who got lucky once.
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> His followers are a minority, a loud, stupid minority, but a minority. They've always been around in various forms, from the old John Birch society (Google it kids) to the Tea Party to the present MAGA movement. It's always the same thing, and they got their one moment with Trump's presidency. They're done.
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> **The GOP will, once they finally get rid of Trump this next election cycle, go back to a more normal party. This will be Putin's death knell, as really his last hope is Trump winning.** The US will continue on, having built up a massive tech lead in AI already, and with its economy already dusting the EU. China will shrink as its population ages out. India is on deck, and the geopolitical dance will turn into a threesome, between the US, China, and India. These are also the three largest nations by population, not coincidentally. The EU will fade in importance. Russia might not even be around anymore, but even if it is, no one will care.