Recesión 2023: Esta vez es especial

Otro crypto-chiringuito que deja en pelotas a los pardillos que han metido la pasta. NO SE PODIA DE SABÉ HOYGA

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/crypto-lender-celsius-freezes-withdrawals

One of the Biggest Crypto Lenders Freezes Withdrawals

A month after the collapse of the UST and Luna coins, the crypto sphere is in the grip of another big shock.

A month after the dramatic collapse of sister tokens UST or TerraUSD and Luna, the crypto space is in the grip of another scandal.

The crypto lender Celsius Network has just made an announcement that will no doubt cause further panic among investors.

The firm, founded in 2017 by Alex Mashinsky, S. Daniel Leon and Nuke Goldstein, will freeze withdrawals of funds from its customers and does not say exactly when this measure will end.

"Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts," the company said in a memo published in Medium. "We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations."

'Meet Our Obligations'

"Acting in the interest of our community is our top priority. In service of that commitment and to adhere to our risk management framework, we have activated a clause in our Terms of Use that will allow for this process to take place."

Celsius doesn't say what prompted him to take such an extreme step.

The firm tries however to reassure investors: "Celsius has valuable assets and we are working diligently to meet our obligations."

https://twitter.com/CelsiusNetwork/status/1536169010877739009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1536169010877739009%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Finvesting%2Fcryptocurrency%2Fcrypto-lender-celsius-freezes-withdrawals

The announcement caused the downfall of CEL, the native token of the Celsius ecosystem. Indeed, the price of CEL was down 58% to $0.171895 at the time of this writing according to data firm CoinGecko.

CEL had hit an all-time high of $8.05 on June 4, 2021.

What Does Celsius Do?

Before we continue, let's take a break to explain what Celsius Network is. Celsius is a cryptocurrency lending platform. The company allows anyone to borrow cryptocurrency and earn interest for lenders.

"Earn high. Borrow low. Change the world," the firm says on its website. One of its catch phrases is "Borrow like a Billionaire."

Celsius, through its CEL token, promises "financial rewards" as much as 30% extra returns weekly. But some options are not available to U.S. based users.

When it raised $400 million last October from investors led by WestCap and Canadian Caisse de dépôt du Québec (CDPQ), Celsius Network saw its valuation soar to $3 billion. The company wants to be an intermediary between traditional finance and the sphere of cryptocurrencies.

https://twitter.com/CelsiusNetwork/status/1447886463148904455?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1447886463148904455%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Finvesting%2Fcryptocurrency%2Fcrypto-lender-celsius-freezes-withdrawals

Returning now to its decision to freeze withdrawals, Celsius Network explains that:

"We understand that this news is difficult, but we believe that our decision to pause withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts is the most responsible action we can take to protect our community."

The firm promises to restore withdrawals but does not provide any timetable.

"We are working with a singular focus: to protect and preserve assets to meet our obligations to customers," Celsius Network said. "Our ultimate objective is stabilizing liquidity and restoring withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts as quickly as possible. There is a lot of work ahead as we consider various options, this process will take time, and there may be delays."

Celsius Has Rocky Relationships with Some States

The announcements from Celsius comes a month after the disaster UST and Luna, two tokens of the Terra ecosystem.

UST, or TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin, lost its dollar peg when millions of investors all wanted to redeem their tokens at the same time.

A stablecoin is a digital currency whose value is pegged to a stable reserve asset, like the U.S. dollar, the euro or gold. Stablecoins are supposed to be backed by assets in dollars or euros whose fair value must be at least equivalent to the number of coins in circulation.

The debacle of UST and Luna, which are sister tokens belonging to the Terra ecosystem, caused more than $55 billion in losses for investors.

Suffice to say that Celsius will not help restore confidence.

In addition, the firm has been in the sights of the authorities for some time now. The New Jersey Bureau of Securities had ordered the platform to stop offering and selling interest-earning cryptocurrency products.

Last year, the Texas State Securities Board accused Celsius Network for not offering securities licensed at the state or federal level.

Celsius's rivals are BlockFi, Aave, Compound and Maple.

In February, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced a $100 million agreement with BlockFi to settle an investigation into one of its star products. BlockFi agreed to register its savings-account product, BIA, as a security, which raises the question of its competitiveness against traditional banks.

@lowfour (post #91)

Ya se habla de corralito financiero en banca de bitcoins. La bolsa echando para abajo a lo bestia, las criptos perdiendo valor a lo bestia, es decir, ambas burbujas nacidas al calor del dinero gratis, se desploman.

Veremos lo mismo con una tercera burbuja, la inmobiliaria, nacida también a ese calor del dinero gratis?

Lo veremos

Mientras tanto en en innombrable, la peña diciendo ya que en el sector TIC patrio las empresas han congelado ya contrataciones en todos sitios, muchas de esas empresas viven de auditar y trabajar para la banca a distintos niveles.... Vienen recortes bestias?

Bueno pues USA 🇺🇸 oficialmente en Bear market. La cosa pinta malamente.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/13/business/stocks-bear-market/stocks-bonds-crypto?smid=url-share

Three weeks ago, Wall Street narrowly escaped a bear market, with stocks rebounding at the last minute from a brutal drop that had brought the S&P 500 down 20 percent from a record high in January. The next few weeks offered a glimmer of hope that the worst of the losses might be over.

That glimmer is now gone.

On Monday, the S&P fell 3.9 percent, closing the day nearly 22 percent below its Jan. 3 peak and firmly in a bear market — a rare and grim marker of investors’ growing concerns for the economy.

A crucial report on Friday showed inflation in the United States was accelerating and creeping into every corner of the economy. Earlier last week, the World Bank issued a dire warning that global growth may be choked, especially as the war in Ukraine drags on.

Together, the data undercut optimism that the Federal Reserve, as it raises interest rates, would be able to keep price gains under control without damaging the American economy and sending ripples throughout the globe.

Monday’s trading ended with reports that the Fed is likely to discuss making its biggest interest-rate increase since 1994 when policymakers meet this week.

“The Fed needs to hike policy rates more aggressively if it has any hope of bringing inflation down,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. “If it’s going to have to tighten even more, then the chance of a recession is higher.”

Large stock declines like this one — just the seventh bear market in the last 50 years — usually accompany a tectonic shift in the outlook for the economy and batter people’s retirement accounts. While one does not cause the other, recessions have historically followed bear markets. The last time stocks fell this much was at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and before that it was during the 2007-8 global financial crisis, which toppled some of the world’s largest banks.

The bear market in 2020, however, lasted only a relatively short six months. Stock analysts worry this decline will drag on longer.

Stocks are dropping now because companies and consumers face rising costs nearly everywhere they turn and investors fear that the Fed will clobber the economy as it tries to get inflation under control. The central bank has already raised interest rates twice this year, and Wall Street is bracing for interest rates — which were close to zero in March — to rise as high as 3 percent by September. The last time the federal funds rate was that high was during the Great Recession.

The tightening from higher policy rates filters through the economy to make borrowing of all kinds — from mortgages to business debt — more expensive. That slows down the housing market, keeps consumers from spending and discourages corporate expansion.

But interest rates are a blunt tool, and their impact on the economy is delayed, making it difficult for the Fed to know if it has gone too far before it is too late.

“By the time you start to catch it and realize you did too much, you’re going to be deep in a trough,” said Dan Genter, the chief executive of Genter Capital Management, an investment advisory firm. “It’s going to take nine to 12 months before you see the total effects, and it takes that long to get out of it.”

Borrowing costs are rising as $5-a-gallon gasoline and higher food costs, rents and home prices all begin to take a toll on households, Mr. Genter added. That in turn hurts consumer spending, which has long been a principal driver of the U.S. economy.

“My fear is that basically the Fed is really going to tighten too much and potentially throw us into a serious recession,” he said.

Y continúa pero pasó de copiarlo en el movíl

Vamos para bingo. Corralito en Binance 😂😂😂😂😂

https://reddit.com/r/investing/comments/vbcjt2/binance_pauses_bitcoin_withdrawals_due_to_a_stuck/

@lowfour (post #95)

que idiota es la gente, prefiere dinero fiat a valiosas cryptos 🤪

@elarquitecto (post #54) La mayor parte de la deuda la tienen los estados. De ahí que el BCE y la Fed estén remoloneando a la hora de subir tipos de forma agresiva: no solo sería meter la economía de cabeza en recesión, sino enviar a la quiebra de forma directa a algunos estados (España, Italia...).

Los estados intentarán alargar todo lo posible la situación de inflación + tipos bajos para, como dices, aguarse la deuda. ¿Quienes lo pagan? En primera instancia, los que tengan deuda pública, que van a perder dinero _real_ aunque el valor en números se mantengan. Después perderán los que tengan cash, como en toda inflación, porque donde normalmente pondrías el dinero en depósitos a un interés cercano a la inflación o comprarías deuda pública... ahora todo está al 0-1%, y en bolsa vas a perder dinero. La única opción medio buena a día de hoy es cambiarlo por oro, mientras este no empiece a ir para arriba.

Por último, saber que los valores de inflación actual no son comparables a los de los años 80, porque la metodología cambió y lo que ahora son 8.6% equivalen aproximadamente a un 11% de los años 80 (recordemos que en USA se atajó con tipos al 21%). La cosa es muy seria.

@lowfour (post #95)

Es lo que os decía, corralito de bancos de cryptos..... Viene el guano en cantidades industriales. Las burbujas nacidas del dinero gratis y expansión de deuda van a explotar.

Este miércoles (mañana) el Austin Powells nos saca de dudas sobre el tamaño del guano.

@LurkerIII (post #97)

En USA ya no pueden esperar más, van a meter un pepinazo de subida de tipos y que les peten a los hipotecados.

@lowfour (post #99)

pues ojo que lo mismo el bce va detrás y sin avisar

porque una cosa es que la fed suba 0,25% y el bce pueda permitirse no hacer nada (total, el cambio euro-dólar no se mueve tanto), y luego la fed suba otro cuarto y ya entonces...

pero está pasando esto



éso significa que la gasolina nos cuesta más cara

y qué pasa si el diferencial pasa a 1,5% ? el euro se devaluará más (o el dólar se apreciará) y todo lo que va indexado en dólares nos será más caro, nos costará más €

la solución pasaría por igualar los tipos al dólar y la subida esperada del 0,25% del € igual es de un puntazo o son varias subidas de 0,25 en poco tiempo

>

@LurkerIII (post #97) en bolsa vas a perder dinero. La única opción medio buena a día de hoy es cambiarlo por oro

En teoría, repito, en teoría para ciclos inflacionarios no muy bestias la bolsa lo hace bien. También funcionan bien las materias primas en general.

No me hagáis buscar los artículos o papers que me matáis.😵

@lowfour (post #99) USA tiene más facilidad que Europa para financiarse, siempre que mantenga al dólar como una moneda seria que los demás países puedan usar como reserva. Para mantener el dólar como moneda seria no queda más que subir tipos, a lo Paul Volker si hace falta. La Fed tiene margen para ir a una recesión porque su economía está recalentadísima (prácticamente tienen paro negativo).

Hasta Japón puede mantener un debt-to-gdp brutal siempre que siga exportando y su economía funcione aunque sea sin crecimiento.

En Europa puede financiarse Alemania y los que tengan las cuentas medianamente saneadas. Los PIGS ni de puta coña. El BCE se verá en la tesitura: o mantenemos los tipos bajos importando la inflación de los USA y jodemos a todos los ahorradores alemanes y franceses (y al final habrá que subir tipos igualmente), o subimos tipos parejos con los USA y jodemos a los estados español, griego e italiano. Sería como si la Fed tuviese que preocuparse de las cuentas públicas de México antes de una subida de tipos.

@Ungaunga (post #101) Hablas del medio-largo, seguramente. Ahí la bolsa bate a todo. Yo hablo de esta situación: un señor tenía su dinero en renta fija a prácticamente el 0% o en cuenta corriente. Ahora ve que se le viene una inflación del 10%, ¿qué hace para siquiera preservar su dinero? Si lo mete en Bolsa, bien podría comerse una caída del -20% antes de tocar fondo. Si lo deja donde está, pierde el 10% porque no hay ninguna solución (tipo depósito a plazo o renta fija) que le de nada cerca de la inflación. Otra opción era el ladrillo, pero también vemos subidas de precios superiores a inflación, con lo cual estás igual de jodido y pierdes la liquidez. Y el BTC y sus amigos, en el que muchos confiaban para zafar inflación, al guano. Ahora mismo solo aguantan los metales, aunque para mí siempre son un misterio.

>

@lowfour (post #104) Que sea grande la ostia, aunque me pille a mi un poco. Por una vez me pilla con los deberes hechos en ahorro y de todo

Ojo, que en los 70-80 la inflación barrió los ahorros de millones de viejos que lo metían en el colchón. No hacen falta muchos años de inflación al 15-20% (del 76 al 85) para dejarte tiritando. El que tenía ahorrados 100.000€, en 5 años no tiene ni 50.000€ descontando la inflación.

Yo en cierta manera estaba esperando un crash bursátil, llevo muy líquido 5 años, pero no me lo esperaba con tantísima inflación de repente y sin prácticamente alternativas. En 2007-2008 podías mantener tu liquidez en depósitos al 5% para ir pescando en Bolsa, pero ahora no tienes nada para protegerte.

@LurkerIII (post #106)

Bueno, yo lo puedo invertir en mi empresa que al final siempre te da los mejores retornos. Me refiero desarrollar un producto, etc. Imagino que es una opción (con más riesgo, pero no tanto). Tienes razón.

Ya sabes lo que creó la ola de desencanto que desembocó en el nazismo... los jóvenes en la hiperinflación pudieron surfear la catástrofe tomando riesgos e invirtiendo en bolsa. Se pegaron la vida padre y vivieron a tope. En cambio los mayores, más ahorradores, tenían que gastarse el sueldo entero según cobraban para que cundiera algo. Cuando se acabó la hiperinflación los "aventureros" volvieron a ser nada y estaban desencantados y encontraron "acción" en las banderitas y el nacionalismo expansionista.

Gran ganga, gran gangaaaaa soy de Teheráaaaan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html

Coinbase lays off 18% of workforce as executives prepare for recession and ‘crypto winter

Coinbase is laying off almost a fifth of its workforce amid a collapse in its stock and crypto prices.

The cryptocurrency exchange will cut 18% of full-time jobs, according to an email sent to employees Tuesday morning. Coinbase has roughly 5,000 full-time workers, translating to a head count reduction of around 1,100 people.

Shares of Coinbase were down about 5.4% on Tuesday morning.

CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to a possible recession, and a need to manage Coinbase’s burn rate and increase efficiency. He also said the company grew “too quickly” during a bull market.

“We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom. A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period,” Armstrong said, adding that past crypto winters have resulted in a significant decline in trading activity. “While it’s hard to predict the economy or the markets, we always plan for the worst so we can operate the business through any environment.”

Coinbase had initially said it was pausing hiring. Two weeks later, the crypto giant announced that it was extending the freeze for the “foreseeable future.” Earlier this year, Coinbase said it planned to add 2,000 jobs across product, engineering and design.

“Our employee costs are too high to effectively manage this uncertain market,” Armstrong said. “While we tried our best to get this just right, in this case it is now clear to me that we over-hired.”

The news comes during a deep rout for Coinbase shares. The stock went public via a direct listing last April during a boom in crypto markets and investors clamoring for high-growth tech stocks. Coinbase’s shares are down 79% this year and 85% from the all-time high. Meanwhile, bitcoin has dropped to near $22,000 and has lost 53% of its value this year.

San Francisco-based Coinbase reported a slump in users in its last quarter and a 27% decline in revenue from a year ago. The company gets the majority of its top line from transaction fees, which are closely tied to trading activity.

President and Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi called it a “very difficult decision for Coinbase” but given the economic backdrop, she said it “felt like the most prudent thing to do right now.”

Affected employees received a notification from human resources. If so, the memo was sent to a personal email as Coinbase cut off access to the company systems. Armstrong called it the “only practical choice” given the number of employees with access to customer information, and a way to “ensure not even a single person made a rash decision that harmed the business or themselves.”

Coinbase employees will have access to a talent hub to find new jobs in the industry, including Coinbase Ventures’ portfolio companies. Choi said they would still be “doubling down” on areas like security and compliance and may be “reorienting” employees to near-term revenue drivers.

“If there are any cuts to new product areas, it’s going to be more around experimental venture areas that we’re still very bullish on, but that we don’t want to invest in in this part of the cycle,” Choi told CNBC in an interview at the company’s headquarters.

“We will continue to invest in incredible innovative areas of crypto that we think are emerging over the longer term, but we’re probably going to do those in a more measured way in this type of an environment.”

Coinbase joins dozens of other tech and crypto companies slamming the brakes on hiring. Crypto lender BlockFi said Monday it was cutting 20% of its employees. Open-source tracker Layoffs.fyi estimates that more than 5,500 start-up and tech jobs have been cut in June alone.

Coinbase’s intention is “that this is a one-time event,” Choi said adding that the company has $6 billion of cash on the balance sheet. The company has lived through multiple bear markets in crypto before, also known as “crypto winters.”

“We will power through any macro environment, any crypto winter, or anything that’s coming,” she said. “The reality though, is that we have to adjust when we feel that there’s a very dynamic economic environment in play.”

Tech companies have been fighting low morale and attrition as their stocks get slammed. Last week, a petition posted to a decentralized publishing platform called for the removal and a “vote of no confidence” regarding several Coinbase executives, including Choi.

Armstrong called attention to the since-deleted petition, and in a Tweet urged employees to quit if they don’t believe in the company.

“We will always encourage our employees to share feedback internally on how we operate as a company — and we have a number of mechanisms in place for them to do so. It’s very much unclear if this document came from within the company,” Choi said. “However, if it did, we’re disappointed that those behind it felt the need to breach the trust of the company and their co-workers by sharing this information in a way clearly designed to drive controversy rather than a meaningful dialogue.”

Coinbase has no plans to offer additional company equity grants, or cash compensation amid the price drop, Choi said. The company offers annual grants, partially so employees could “mitigate the swings” and volatility in crypto. For employees and investors, the COO likened it to Amazon or Tesla: a long-term investment with volatility in the meantime.

“We think that anyone who makes an investment, whether they’re an employee or investor, will have a handsome return over the longer term,” Choi said. “Coinbase is a long-term play — we have very deep conviction in the long-term value of the stock.”

Inflación Suecia 7.2% LOL

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@lowfour (post #107) Ya sabes lo que creó la ola de desencanto que desembocó en el nazismo...

Ah, sí! En España a VOX se le presenta un magnífico escenario para pescar en la mierda que se nos viene encima. A nada que nos vayamos de nuevo a paros del 25%, un discurso populista les podría colocar fácilmente en una posición de gobierno sin hacer nada especial: que si políticos corruptos, que si la culpa es de los inmigrantes, Make Spain Great Again y a gobernar.

@LurkerIII (post #110)

"".....y a gobernar." Lo dudo mucho. No tienen capacidad, programa, que estén no significa que gobiernen. Que se forren si me lo creo.

Y que la gente no sea crítica y veamos una Alemania pre Nazi si me lo creo.

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2022-06-15/encuesta-transicion-energetica-sacrificios_3442082/

que transicionen otros, que estamos muy acostumbrados a contaminar y tal y no lo vamos a dejar por unos grados que suba la temperatura

que se os escapan los noticiones, eh??

la paridad está ahí, ho tenim a tocar!!

@elarquitecto (post #116) Es lo que yo comentaba de importar inflación. Si el BCE deja que el € se hunda frente al $ manteniendo los tipos bajos para no provocar una recesión, lo que provoca es que todas las importaciones se disparen de precio (siendo las más evidentes gas y petróleo, porque las vemos inmediatamente en la gasolinera y la factura de la electricidad), importando inflación. Al final tienes igualmente una recesión y tendrás que subir tipos para mantener la moneda.

No habrá soluciones mágicas con ingeniería financiera del BCE, como hicieron con los QE. Los QE no hacen más que patear el problema para más adelante (en lugar de 2014, lo tenemos en 2022), pero el actual no puede patearse.

@LurkerIII (post #117)

yo es que creo que, aparte de que les interese porloquesea importar inflación, también les interesa subir los últimos

es algo así como cuando en la F1 ves que todo dios cambia de neumáticos porque se degradan, pero los tuyos aguantan... y cuando salen a pista pues sí, corren más, pero resulta que tendrán que volver a cambiar en el futuro y si das unas cuantas vueltas más tú no...

pues estamos en eso, en mantenernos en pista y subir tipos más tarde para recortar la diferencia solo una vez (o menos veces)

hablando de tipos

estaba mirando eso en idealista y luego me he metido en la web del bbva (yoquese, el primero que he pillao) y salia esto otro

no sé si idealista no actualiza mucho sus ofertas o es que son eso, ofertones (o peor, ganchos)

pero lo que venía a resaltar es que ya no dan fijos al 1-2% sino casi al 4%

**3.60%TAE** (vale, hay truqui, si les contratas cositas igual te bajan casi un puntito y es 2,81%TAE)

el rollo es que son cuotas similares a un alquiler (quizá un poco por debajo)

y que tienes que tener unos 50k ahorrados para obtener el préstamo de 150k sobre un precio de tasación de 200k

todo para seguir pagando 600€/mes durante 30 añazos y suma seguros y tal que se irán ajustando

por cierto, no me salía el ing y he toqueteado y resulta que no ofrecen a plazo fijo, sino esto:

sorpresa en las gaunas!! diferencial 1,59% con el euribor como un cohete!!

la cuota casi igual para un variable que te va a joder la vida

vale, ya sé por qué te sale esa cuota, te prestan más!!

ing:

lo del bbva según idealista: