Recesión 2023: Esta vez es especial

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/05/07/the-recession-no-one-will-discuss-as-equity-investors-rush-to-exit/

The Recession No One Will Discuss; As Equity Investors Rush To Exit

@lowfour (post #1)

el movidón es que estamos en "guerra" entre los popularcapitalistitas de "libertad o comunismo" (o sea, los que quieren desregular lo suyo para timarnos a todos, ya sea con pisitos o con mascarillas vía presupuestos públicos... o rescates chungos bancarios posteriores a quiebras), y los de un modelo más ligado al intervencionismo y la planificación central

en fin, que los trumpistas lo tienen crudo, pero van a dar la turra igualmente

@lowfour (post #4)

la vivienda nunca baja!

madremia, entonces los 1,90€ que me costó hoy es casi barato!

la putada de la inflación es que nos va a retrasar el pinchazo, porque la peña justificará sus mierdas de precios burbujeados porque "to está mu caro" y claro, no voy a bajar mi precio de usura

(hasta que el banco lo tase y diga que por sus cojones va a prestar un hipotecón en semejante mierda)

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/08/biden-trade-policy-russia-ukraine-00025321

Biden’s trade team: RIP globalization

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerates the administration’s efforts to find a path between global free trade and Trump-like protectionism.

Tsss tsss que viene que viene

Tsss tsss que viene que viene

https://news.crunchbase.com/news/layoffs-hiring-freezes-cameo-uber-facebook-thrasio/?utm_source=cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20220512&utm_content=intro&utm_term=content&utm_source=cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20220512

Tech Layoffs And Hiring Freezes Appear To Accelerate

While earlier in the year, much of the talk in the tech sector focused on falling valuations, dropping stock prices and slower funding rounds, a lot of chatter the past two months has been around something that hits much closer to home for many people.

Many tech companies are slowing or outright freezing hiring, while others are going a step further and laying employees off—and the pace seems to be accelerating.

Just since April, companies ranging from personalized video platform Cameo to Facebook parent ​​Meta are altering their employment plans. Cameo is reportedly cutting 80 employees—25 percent of its workforce–per The Information, while Meta is freezing hiring through the end of the year, according to Business Insider.

Del hilo de la burbuja

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Stop TOTAL del mercado inmobiliario en Estocolmo. No se vende nada, de hecho los inmos recomiendan retirar los pisos del mercado. Supongo que quieren quitar carestía.

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Un chaval de mi cliente se queda con las ganas de "la plusvalía". Afortunadamente no hizo hipoteca puente.

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Razones

>

- Subida de tipos

- La guerra de Ucrania

- Subida de electricidad

- La gente con el agua al cuello.

Las criptos muertas.

https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/f68451879a1841a6a0f44025735d9236

LUNA & UST Trading Suspended

2022-05-13 10:09

Fellow Binancians,

Binance will suspend spot trading for the LUNA/BUSD and UST/BUSD trading pairs at 08:30 AM (UTC) on 2022-05-13. Withdrawals for LUNA and UST will open when the network becomes stable.

We are continuing to work with the project team to create a more stable environment for users, and will keep the community updated accordingly.

Notes:

Terra Blockchain Halted at Block 7,607,789

Deposits and Withdrawals on Terra (LUNA) Network Temporarily Suspended (2022-05-13)

Risk warning: Cryptocurrency trading is subject to high market risk. Please make your trades cautiously. You are advised that Binance is not responsible for your trading losses.

Thanks for your support!

Binance Team

2022-05-13

@lowfour (post #8)

supongo que "guerra de ucrania" lo engloba, pero es que sube la electricidad y la gasolina

que la peña tiene que buscarse casi 200€ a final de mes con la tontá esta, eh?

y espera, que falta meter el euribor (que es subida de tipos, pero el yuri va a su bola, no es la fed o el bce fijando nada, si dice de ponerse en el 5% se pone), salió de su inmersión negativa hace unas semanas, y ahí sigue, subiendo

aunque la peña ya casi no hace a tipo variable, pero todavía quedan muchos con sus hipotecas atadas al yuri

@lowfour (post #9)

aun pueden bajar un poco más, luego harán bull trap

esto no se acaba, espera que llegue a un "suelo" y rebotará (salvo que haya achicharrado a los más cretinos y no les quede cash para subirse al carro, pero hay tanto ludópata que fijo que lo rebotan)

https://www.reddit.com/r/awfuleverything/comments/uor1b3/redditor_had_74_million_dollars_in_crypto_last/

El token

@lowfour (post #13)

esto me recuerda también a los lazis, no importa lo supremacistas que se mostrasen, que los "antifas" habituales les iban a defender igual

aunque en cierto modo, les baja el souffle, porque pierden ese halo de moralidad hiperevolucionada (o algo así) y les baja al barro (donde realmente están, pero se suben a ese pedestal de grandeza y tal, que lo disimula muy bien)

que es un ponzi?? vale, pero es nuestro ponzi y mientras sirva para sacarle pasta a otros... ejemmm... pues a por ello

si aun se ven cadenas de correo diciendo que si mandas pasta a 5 tipos de una lista y te pones en ella, vas a sacar pasta x5

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/upjbv5/why_inflation_has_most_likely_peaked_according_to/

I wanted to highlight a superb Substack blog post by Joseph Politano, an analyst at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I'm going to briefly summarize the article and pepper in my own graphs and commentary, but as always, please read and support his work. His blog is called "Apricitas Economics,"; his Twitter is also full of excellent insights.

Point 1: Annualized prices depend heavily on the 'base' effect, i.e., what happened at the start of the period going back 12 months. He writes,

"April, May, and June of 2021 had the fastest pace of core CPI growth in nearly 50 years thanks to a spectacular increase in used vehicle and other durable goods prices."

Because those spectacular increases will exit the window of calculations for annual inflation, there will necessarily be a reduction in measured inflation (all else held equal). This isn't a guess as much as a mathematical consequence. See Graph 1 here from his article.

Point 2: The limited Fed tightening and communications have already tightened financial conditions. Proof: Graph 2 depicting the Piper-Sandler index, Graph 3 of 30 year fixed mortgages, and Graph 4 from Joseph's article of the Chicago Fed's measure of financial tightness.

Point 3: Bond markets are swiftly pricing in dampening inflation (relative to their previous estimates). See Graph 5 of 5 Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation rate and Graph 6 the 10 Year Break-even. The 5 Year Break-even is also falling. I explain more in my comment here what these mean and provide some additional sources. Here is Joseph's plot, Graph 7.

Point 4: This is really an extension of Point 1, but the massive increases in used car prices has slowed down dramatically. See Graph 8.

Thus, inflation will remain elevated for a few months, but the extraordinary factors in the spring of 2021 will no longer be represented in upcoming annual calculations of inflation. Further, the Fed is now finally walking the walk. You can argue that 0.5% increases in the interest rate are minuscule historically, but Graph 3 through 7 show that the market is taking it seriously and tightening on its own (e.g., 30 year fixed mortgage rate hitting 5.6%). The Federal Funds Rate and QT doesn't need to have a simple, linear relationship with actual financial conditions.

The caveat is that we still have upcoming issues with the supply chain, such as in the diesel sector, but there have been meaningful improvements in trucking and shipping, as I wrote about in my previous posts. But I believe the other factors mentioned imply that inflation has peaked, as Joseph more convincingly argues.

Whatever you believe about the Fed's past actions, they leave me reasonably bullish for say 3 months from now. What do you think?

EDIT: To avoid the dozens of future comments about it: nowhere in this post or article is it claimed that inflation is going to be at 2-3% in a month, gas prices are back to normal, oil is literally shooting up from the ground all around us, it was all transitory, Fed was right all along, the CIA did nothing wrong, etc.

EDIT: Joseph noticed this post LMAO!

@lowfour (post #17)

na, cómo va la core?? la subyacente??

esta inflación es deflacionaria, quelosepas

@elarquitecto (post #18)

PPCC sal del cuerpo del Arquitecto! Cierto, es todo la energía. Está la gente CANINA. Pero Canina total en Suecia. Se nota en muchas cosas. Los bares si están animados, pero el tema pisos se ha quedado flatliner total. Veo un parón de contratación muy serio.

Y ojo que los grandes "unicorns" tech parece que empiezan a reventar (y despedir) o las van a ver muy negras porque necesitan grandes inversiones para mantener sus planes de crecimiento y las inversiones están muy asustadizas por alguna razón.

https://www.svd.se/a/G3E0W6/techbaksmallan-ar-har-nu-borjar-uppsagningarna

The hangover is here - now the redundancies begin

Björn Jeffery

The tech crash on the stock market has domino effects throughout the startup ecosystem. The hangover from the high values ​​of recent years is here - and now the redundancies in Sweden are starting to come.

The stock market crash for the tech companies came quickly and was merciless. Zoom, Sinch, Peloton and Truecaller have all plummeted over 40 percent of their market capitalization since the beginning of the year. Even giants like Apple, Google and Microsoft have lost about 20 percent. The hedge fund Tiger Global lost SEK 170 billion on its holdings - only during the first quarter of the year.

To understand what this means for tech companies, you need to take a closer look at how the ecosystem behind them works. When venture capitalists make investments in startups, they are usually classified as "rounds". It used to start with "seed round" or "seed round" - the first money invested in a company. You sow a seed that can grow into a real company. Then came round A, B, C and so on. In the end, depending on how the company developed, one could possibly reach the letter combination IPO - "initial public offering", or stock exchange listing.

But it quickly became more messy than that. In a tougher competition, venture capital wanted to enter the best companies earlier, and a new round emerged - "pre seed". In addition, the values ​​increased steadily in the rest of the rounds. An investment that was previously considered large enough for an A-round could in some cases already come in seed.

Inflation came to the startup world early. But it is only now that it is beginning to be felt, in combination with rising interest rates.

The big tech crash on the stock market has forced a new, tougher world for raising capital. This is most clearly seen among so-called cloud and SaaS companies (software-as-a-service), a kind of service company that sells via subscription. The Bessemer Cloud index measures how listed companies in this category are valued, and the curve shows a huge fall. One way to value companies is to multiply revenues and obtain a company value. The median company was traded last year in May at 14.38 times revenue. The corresponding figure from May this year is 6.46. This means that prices have more than halved in one year.

The halving also spreads to companies outside the stock exchange. The result of the hardening stock market climate will be increased pressure on startups in later stages - around B / C rounds and above. As they are closer to either a stock exchange listing or a sale, the comparison prices on the stock exchange become more relevant.

If you - as is the case for several large startups in Sweden - have raised money on very high private valuations, the companies can easily end up in a foxhole.

They can not be listed on the stock exchange, because the stock market climate is not favorable.

They can not bring in more money for a higher valuation than the previous round because no one will want to invest in valuations from 2020–2021.

They can not continue to invest in unhindered growth because the money will then run out.

What do you do?

An alternative is to do as the digital health center Kry and tighten the belt. On Tuesday, the company announced that they will lay off around 100 people, about 10 percent of the workforce. "We need to react to market dynamics and we need to be more careful with our capital," writes the company's CEO, Johannes Schildt in a statement. Taking the company towards profitability more quickly is a way of parrying the outside world.

Another option is to bring in new money, albeit at a lower valuation than before. However, this creates increased dilution in ownership among existing shareholders and is thus not a popular alternative. Venture capitalists in Stockholm say that many rounds of financing are dragging on right now, and that the valuations for companies in later stages have almost halved compared with a year ago.

The consequence of a lower valuation may also affect the staff of these companies. Many startups today have various option programs that allow their employees to take part in the company's success by becoming shareholders themselves. The options are included in the staff's total compensation, in addition to salary and other benefits. As long as the valuation has only gone up, this has been very profitable for many in the startup world. But with lower company valuations, it is possible that the options become worthless, and a large part of the employees' compensation is completely lost. The possibility that an option will not be worth anything is certainly part of its design, but many younger employees are now experiencing this for the first time.

In recent years, an increasing number of companies have achieved unicorn status - a valuation of over one billion dollars. It has been seen as a proof of success and a milestone on the road to becoming a giant company. After the tech race, these unicorns are now standing and wondering if the valuation was then worth what it may cost now.

A high valuation can become a yoke that you need to handle. A declining investment climate will force many companies to cut back sharply, to extend the time they have before they need new money. But conversion takes time and can be expensive. If you have been unlucky with the timing, the cash can be meager, and time is short to make big changes. Then it is not enough to cut back. Some unicorns will probably not survive at all.

Ojo, empiezan los despidos en las startups de relumbrón suecas, las que van a ser "unicornios". Una de ella es KRY, una plataforma escandalosa de médicos online. Abres la app y te atiende un médico por videoconferencia, te dice "naaaaa, eso no es na, tómate un paracetamol y a dormir". ... y la gente contenta. Y luego el estado paga a precio de médico de verdad. Vamos, otro truco más para llevárselo crudo del estado.

https://www.kry.se/en/

Total, que han empezado a echar gente porque ya no les cuadran las cifras con la financiación cortándose en seco y necesitan más runaway para no darse la ostia y quebrar toda la empresa. Es decir que tienen que estirar el dinero hasta que escampe.

Lo mismo mi empresa de los videojuegos hace lo mismo y corta consultores... el viernes voy a explorar el tema.

"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-chains-are-never-returning-to-normal"

The world has permanently changed and supply chains are going to face continuing challenges for decades to come. Among those challenges are:

@elarquitecto (post #21)

Vaya, no había visto esto. Cierto... muchos problemas con las supply chain. Imposible encotrar una funda para el ipad pro... de Apple! Está todo revuelto. Lo del buffer y la población decreciente no lo he pillado... es que el link no funciona, el plugin que hace los previews de los enlaces a veces deja de funcionar.

@lowfour (post #22)

cómo que no funciona?

qué raro

"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-chains-are-never-returning-to-normal"

lo de la población decreciente se refiere a la mano de obra

mientras la mano de obra sea barata y abundante, se producen excedentes de stock que hacen de buffer, pero si tienes menos mano de obra, tienes menos excedentes y empiezan los líos con los precios

ojo, porque esto de que los problemas de abastecimiento no son coyunturales puede apuntar a esto otro, que la mano de obra barata se ha acabado y el problema no es tanto logístico, sino de costes empotrados

pero bueno, sea como sea, parece que en la próxima década habrá problemas en suministros por todas partes

lo cual no tiene por que ser malo, se pueden crear otros flujos

en vez de traer madera de china, te la traes de noruega, porque si al final los costes son iguales, pues lo mismo prefieres gastar menos gasoil y emitir menos co2 o algo así

Vámonos hasta el fondo! Dicen que una vez se entra en bear market se suele tardar 13 meses en llegar al fondo y 27 meses en hacer break even

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/uu2b68/sp500_just_entered_bear_market/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

@lowfour mira, lo que te he comentado alguna vez;

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3494108-recycling-critical-minerals-is-an-underappreciated-national-security-tool/

vamos a tener que afinar los ciclos de vida, no puede ser que tiremos tanta basura

después de (o durante, porque la cosa igual está peluda) retirar coches de la circulación y fundirse todo lo que se pueda el consumo de combustibles fósiles (no por el co2, que también, sino porque no habrá para todos, no barato), lo siguiente es esto

tirar botellas de vidrio se va a acabar, las vamos a tener que "retornar" donde las compramos, y así todo el packaging

y veremos si no tenemos que pillarlo todo a granel

eso de las bandejitas hasta para envolver plátanos se acaba (a no ser que encuentren algo super-reciclable y bio y tal, pero papel-cartón no va a poder ser, tampoco estamos para derrochar celulosa)

2030 no lo va a reconocer un comatoso que entrara en coma en 2020 y saliera en 2030

https://reddit.com/r/science/comments/uu96qs/between_2003_and_2018_the_dietrelated_greenhouse/

Los millenials se han dado cuenta de que quitarse de salir para ahorrar el 10% del sueldo nunca les va a permitir llegar para tener la entrada de un piso si cuestan 800.000 euros. Pues han decidido gastárselo todo en salir a cenar, viajecitos y de todo y que le den al ahorro. Lo que llevo diciendo largo tiempo. La tríada Ryanair+Airbnb+Glovo es el sucedáneo para intentar vivir como un rico aunque sea un fin de semana. Por eso triunfan. Son la zanahoria del popularcapitalismo.

https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/uu7tf6/some_millennials_and_gen_z_have_hit_an/