On the oil “long game”: the most direct clue is that Trump is publicly linking the operation to Venezuela’s oil sector, saying the U.S. will be “very strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil industry after the capture. That points less to a neat “oil price trade” and more to regime-change leverage + control over future oil flows (who sells, to whom, under what contracts/sanctions, and which foreign partners—China/Russia/others—get pushed out).
On “are they doing this to speculate because oil is very low?”: there’s no public evidence that this was done to profit from oil trading, and it would be an unusually risky way to do it. Also, if anything, a sudden military action usually adds a risk premium that can push prices up in the short term. Meanwhile, oil has indeed been weak: Brent ended 2025 around $60–61, and early 2026 prints are still around $60 Brent / $57 WTI, after a ~20% drop in 2025 amid oversupply concerns.
So the more realistic oil-related logic is scenario-based:
If the U.S. can rapidly shape a transition and relax constraints, Venezuela could export more over time → more supply → downward pressure on prices.
If it triggers prolonged instability, sabotage, or civil conflict → less supply → upward pressure on prices.
Independently, the U.S. may be trying to re-route Venezuela’s oil future toward U.S.-friendly structures (contracts, operators, sanctions compliance), which is strategic power more than “price speculation.”
esto es lo que pusiste, el gpto dice que "strategic power"
que es como decir que el agua moja
yo me pongo un poco "gorro-aluminio" y no descarto que esta movida sea bastante "pickolera"
vas a la wiki
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Pa%C3%ADsesporreservasprobadasde_petr%C3%B3leo

tienes el dream team fachi (menos canada) en los primeros puestos
ojo venezuela su producción diaria es como 10% de arabia y tiene aprox las mismas reservas
usa tiene reservas para 15 años, me lol
está claro que han dicho, a ver... dónde hay reservas que podamos "movilizar".... ah, mira, venezuela!