Como que? Que van a petar fondos? Crees que esto es algo sistémico? MEXPLIQUE QUE TENGO QUE SACAR LA PASTA

El ChatGPT cree que está contenido

You’ve got good instincts to ask this now. Here’s a clear, forward-looking read on First Brands’ bankruptcy and whether it can turn systemic for funds.

What happened (and why it matters)

• First Brands Group (auto-parts; brands include Fram/Anco) filed for Chapter 11 today. Court papers list $10–50B in liabilities vs. $1–10B in assets, unusually wide and alarming ranges that hint at complex, potentially opaque financing. The company obtained ~$1.1B DIP to operate through restructuring. The Wall Street Journal+1

• A focal point is off-balance-sheet funding (AR/inventory-backed, supply-chain finance, factoring). Lenders and board members flagged accounting/disclosure concerns before the filing, elevating loss-severity risk for certain creditors. Financial Times+1

Where the damage can land in funds

Most exposed strategies/vehicles:

1. Private credit / direct-lending funds that provided senior, unitranche, or TLs to First Brands or participated in rescue financings. Losses depend on lien position vs. trade/supply-chain claims and DIP priming. Expect downward marks and some realized losses; gating unlikely at scale unless multiple names follow. Financial Times+1

2. CLOs if any broadly syndicated loan exposure exists. CLO structures absorb single-name hits well; watch for CCC baskets creeping up if peers reprice, but systemic impairment to CLO equity debt-stack is unlikely from one issuer. (This is an inference based on typical CLO diversification.)

3. Trade-finance / receivables funds and supply-chain-finance vehicles exposed to AR/inventory programs. These can feel sharper pain due to claim subordination/documentation risk and potential collateral mobility (inventory shifts). Greensill-type dynamics are the closest historical rhyme. Global Trade Review (GTR)

4. Credit hedge funds active in CDS or special sits. Mark-to-market swings and basis trades could sting; a few desks reportedly positioned short going in, implying P&L dispersion rather than one-way losses. The Wall Street Journal

Transmission channels (how it could go systemic)

• Valuation & confidence shock in private credit if investors infer widespread undisclosed off-BS liabilities across portfolio names → leads to NAV marks, tighter LP liquidity, and potential fund-level redemption pressure (where allowed). Financial Times

• Collateral uncertainty (who is first in line on inventory/receivables) raising required returns across asset-based lending and SCF, pushing weaker issuers to the brink. The Wall Street Journal+1

• Second-round effects: suppliers and distributors see working-capital strain, prompting trade credit tightening in auto-parts, which can feed back into defaults for similarly financed peers. (Reasoned scenario analysis based on sector linkages.)

• Macro channel is limited today: the banking core capital/contagion metrics don’t indicate stress; this is primarily a non-bank credit story unless multiple similar cases surface rapidly. (Context from systemic-risk literature and monitors.) financialresearch.gov+1

Base case vs. bear case (next 1–3 months)

• Base case (most likely):

  • Concentrated losses for a subset of private-credit, trade-finance, and special-sits funds.

  • CLOs and diversified HY/loan funds digest marks without fund-level stress.

  • DIP financing stabilizes operations; recoveries hinge on collateral reconciliation and potential asset sales. Not systemic beyond specific strategies. The Wall Street Journal

• Bear case (tail-risk):

  • Two to four more issuers in adjacent sectors surface with similar off-BS/SCF opacity, creating a pattern.

  • LPs slow commitments; fundraising winter deepens in private credit; some open-ended vehicles face liquidity management (gates).

  • Spread widening hits marks across Level-3 loan books, creating a self-reinforcing NAV/margin cycle. (Historically consistent with episodes where leverage + opacity cluster.) NBER

Indicators to watch (practical, near-term)

1. Kroll docket & first-day filings: inventory/AR collateral maps, intercreditor agreements, any hints of collateral transfers out of certain lender reach. The BRAKE Report

2. Peer price action: privately placed loans to auto/industrial suppliers with heavy SCF use; look for broker runs, wider OIDs on new prints. Financial Times

3. CLO metrics: CCC buckets, OC cushions, and manager commentary on auto supplier buckets. (Inference using standard CLO surveillance practice.)

4. Trade-finance fund communications: side-pockets, valuation notes, auditor language on receivables existence/priority. Global Trade Review (GTR)

5. OFR/market stress dashboards: any early ticks in bank contagion indexes (more as confirmation it’s not spreading to the core). financialresearch.gov

What I’d do now (actionable, fund-level)

• Triage exposures by legal seniority & collateral realism, not label. Pull borrowing-base certificates, intercreditor agreements, UCC filings, and confirm title/perfection on inventory/AR.

• Run a look-through for SCF dependence across your credits (questions: who provides SCF, confirm true-sale status, concentration of obligors in AR pools, and any trigger-heavy covenants).

• Re-underwrite “off-BS opacity” risk premium across portfolio—apply a haircut template to NAV for borrowers with (a) aggressive WC financing, (b) complex intercompany inventory flows, (c) weak auditors or delayed reporting.

• Engage LPs early with a clean memo: single-name impact, cross-portfolio audit steps, and why your fund’s liquidity terms are resilient. This builds confidence before month-end marks.

• Scenario test redemptions (if applicable) and warehouse margin calls under +150–300 bps spread widening in auto/industrial single-Bs with SCF.

• Hedge selectively (CDX HY/Loans or name-specific CDS where liquidity exists) to cover tail exposure while you clarify collateral reality.

Bottom line

This is serious but likely contained: expect concentrated pain in certain private-credit, trade-finance, and special-sits funds, with broader markets digesting it unless a cluster of similar off-balance-sheet cases emerges. Treat it as a wake-up call on diligence around SCF/AR programs, and move proactively on reviews and LP communications. Global Trade Review (GTR)+3Financial Times+3The Wall Street Journal+3

If helpful, I can draft a 1-page LP note and a diligence checklist you can circulate internally—quick wins that signal control and buy you room to maneuver.

yo no sé si el gpt lo tiene claro o no, pero esta mierda podría ser la típica cagada que parece que no pasa nada, pero empieza la bola de nieve a rodar

si el jesuita está en lo cierto (según le leíamos hace unos años), la banca está bien cubierta y con las normas sobre créditos y tal, no habría problemas

ya vimos quebrar a los de credit suisse y nosequé bancos más, pero claramente hicieron malas praxis y los otros bancos "lo sabían"

el problema es que parece que éstos del first brand no han remontado la crisis del sector, no parecían ir "mal" (bueno, le rebajaron la calificación de b a ccc) y no pertenecen, en principio, a un sector "riesgo" muy claro como son las criptos y cosas así... pero han acumulado pasivo de 6000 millonacos con un activo de apenas 500 (son cifras estimadas, no parece que se conozcan las exactas porloquesea)

así que igual ahora la peña que estaba metiendo pasta en sitios supuestamente seguros (como el lowfour, pero en gringo y con mucha más pasta) lo mismo empieza a recelar

más si el clima es de "truchismo" extremo, donde no sabes qué pedrada te va a venir, ni por dónde... pero seguro viene porque los aranceles no van a salir gratis ni van a mejorar las cosas precisamente (igual a los inside traders sí, pero ya)

y luego está que son "componentes para coches", coches!!

casi media europa y medio mundo anda como loco con el tema del coche, si eléctrico, que si nos invaden los chinos que hacen coches más baratos y que tienen más range, etc

usa ha apostado fuerte por lo "fósil" y seamos claros, ni gm, ni chrysler, ni ford, ninguno va bien (que alguno irá mejor que el otro, vale, pero... creo que los de gm iban cerrando plantas o algo así hce poco)

y aquí en europa la movida no va mejor, en alemania andan con el culo apretado, pero en francia, con renault, peugeaut y citroen (bueno, stellantis en general) tienen un futuro oscurillo

sabéis por qué?? por lo inmo, por qué si no?'

cómo te vas a comprar un coche de 40k pavos si no te da ya con la hipoteca o con el alquiler... pues eso

en usa es aun peor porque allí la burbuja es mucho mayor y porque, aunque tengan sus salarios, al final el coche es un bien básico, no es como en las ciudades europeas que no tienes tanta dependencia

si vemos este tipo de empresa quebrando a lo bestia igual pasan cosas que no es solo que viene toyota y te lo hace más barato

y ojo que en suecia ya petó lo de las baterias esas, no??

Bueno, hoy he cogido el metro... como curro en casa lo único que hago es bajar a la tienda y darme garbeos con la mountain y luego alguna noche salir para ver algún concierto y tal. Pero últimamente salgo muy poco. Pues he cogido el metro y joder... he notado un nivel como mucho más pobretón en la gente. Hace 5 años esto era jauja, ropas impecables, todo dios parecía un agente inmobiliario. Ahora? Mucho más cercano a Madrid, la gente mucho más de currela.

Me ha resultado muy llamativo. Igual era la hora. Pero muy llamativo.

Está claro que el dinero no sobra precisamente.