la ofensiva está atascada, ahora hilo para anticipar "contraofensivas".

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
Started 2023-01-19
1350 posts
lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-25
#1021

Pues Ucrania ha vuelto a desembarcar (o eso he entendido) y encima han atacado Tokmak, un centro de comando ruso. Supongo que con Himars.

Ya están avanzando hacia el sur.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/160pmff/24_aug_night_ambush_halfasleep_naked_russians_run/

A mi me da que los rusos empiezan a estar desbordados. Se les crecen los enanos por Crimea, Tokmak, Moscú, las bases de TU22. Los están volviendo locos.

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-25
#1022
Edited 2023-08-25

Parece que han metido el turbo los Ukros. Imágenes de drones rusos con 50 blindados a la vez y tal. En los telegram rusos dicen que hay un montón de drones.

Es posible que vayan a por Tokmak. Seguro que hoy hay silencio Ukro.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/160g78i/russian_telegram_foreshadowing/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/160fq4z/orikhivske_sector_a_group_of_around_50_ukrainian/

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-25
#1024

Bueno, parece que se confirma que van a por Tokmak a toda velocidad. Están metiendo mogollón de tanques, mucho metraje empieza a aparecer. Creo que esta semana es la semana.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/161714y/are_the_donated_main_battle_tanks_now_being/

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-26
#1025

A estos no les han contado de las municiones smart/bonus o Excalibur

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1693346597449372015?s=20

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-26
#1027

Bueno, lo confirman. Les han petado la primera línea de defensa. Misión casi imposible con todo minado a una densidad inusitada, mezclando minas antitanque con minas anti personal.

Vamos!

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1619ood/top_us_general_says_ukrainian_forces_broke/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-26
#1028

@lowfour (post #1025)

eso es lo que coloquialmente se llama "escabechina"

madremia, como cuando intentaron cruzar el río aquel en severodonets y se zumbaron 20-30 tanques en un día

solo que ahora ya no tienen tanta maquinaria, esto pica más que entonces

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-26
#1029

@lowfour (post #1027)

lo decían en el video aquel que pusiste, que encontraban todo tipo de minas, antitanque, personales, de todo

desesperación ruski no, lo siguiente

no tienen nada con lo que parar a los ukr, solo tienen suerte de que son 100 y no 500, porque si llegan a ser más y tener mejor equipo, ya les habrían barrido de crimea y todo

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-27
#1030
Edited 2023-08-27

Esto es muy importante. Fire control imagino que es que pueden cubrir con artillería todo lo que pasa en una zona. En Crimea no lo tienen pero si lo logran aquí los rusos y sus 500.000 reclutas sin armas ni comida las van a pasar putísimas.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/161rbf1/ukrainian_army_closer_to_taking_fire_control_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

Comentario

Is it truly enough to Zerg rush their way through the Ukrainians? I have no idea.

No ... this is not a video game where units move forwards while getting remove from the planet.

The strength of a Zerg rush in real life is, lots of troops WITH artillery and other support.

Ukraine has been really hitting that Russian artillery a lot, while Russians stock of support vehicles has been in a downward trend of reliability/specs.

Untrained bodies are effective in trenches because that massive cover, and your enemy needs to come to you over killing zones. 500k untrained people in a rush, will panic, not knowing how to do orders etc. Their use is at best cannon fodder to drain Ukrainian ammo with experienced troops behind it. But what is left of their actually storm troops? If they can not take terrain now, what is 500k bodies going to do.

And with what ammo? The more Ukraine pushes, the more supply lines are hurt. Russia had problems already before Stormshadow, now with supply lines and more depos going boom. Drone production running overtime in Ukraine with constant attack, while Russia AA is slowly getting widdle down. The freaking capital of Russia is now under almost daily drone attacks! Daring raids even in Crimea... Hell, those boat drones are doing work.

Just throwing untraied troops at the problem does nothing beyond making your logistics WORSE. Those guys need food, ammo etc. Untrained soldiers are the worse as they do not know how to conserve ammo, aiming will be crappy, every guy killed in a field is more ammo, nads etc lost that need to be replaced.

Wagners tactic worked only because it was a city terrain, in open fields .... And Ukraine now also has ample supply of cluster ammo, the worst thing for small units of cannon fodder. I am waiting for M26 Himars clusters, why that is not yet given, i do not understand!

Ukraine has the momentum and its only going to get worse for Russia when F16s show up with 150km over the horizon attacks. The dwindling K52 fleet is going to be even worse off. And F16 = full integration with nato ammo, so while Ukraine is using some ammo, its not always using all its functionality because of the rudimentary integration on those USSR planes.

O and another 45 Gepards by end of the year just for that extra bit of defense..

While terrain gains are small, when the dam breaks, things can go fast. And for Russia, every km lost is a km that himars and artily move closer / cover more area.

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-27
#1031

De un hilo de telegram, describe en detalle el horror que tienen que enfrentar para avanzar

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1695563964158025974

Exceptional thread and profound insights into the counter-offensive in the South by @solonko1648 (Olexandr Solon'ko), servicemember of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In his analysis, he sheds light on the situation, discussing both the challenges and achievements.

Translation:

Much has been written about the battles in the South. I wouldn't say that this is the case where it's better to see once (or multiple times) than to hear/read about it many times. Especially through the eyes of the frontline units. A thread about battles from the perspective of aerial reconnaissance:

Environment. Steppe. Fields, tree lines. Slight elevations and dips, villages, small rivers. Minefields. Whoever you may be, an armored assault group, evacuation team, aerial or infantry reconnaissance, your movement is visible from afar. The enemy has long been preparing.

Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. Both sides understand that there are limited places for positions and deployment. Most likely, there's something to shoot at in almost every tree line. Confirmation is needed, of course. Primarily, it's necessary to determine the priority of the target

There's a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything's been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible

There has been a great deal of talk about fortifications and minefields. Every tree line has been dug up. On one stretch of the Mariupol highway, anti-tank fortifications have been installed. We're not just talking about trenches. There's an entire system of trenches, dugouts, and even undeground tunnels in some places

In each tree line, there's a network of trenches and firing positions for various weapons. AGS, DShK, ATGMs. Anti-tank ditches and mine obstacles stretch across the fields. From regular TM and POM mines to more "sophisticated" ones, all lying in wait for infantry.

Once again, it's crucial to emphasize that we're specifically discussing a system of trenches, interconnected by passageways and pathways. These pathways facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition. As for what remains unexcavated, it's mined. All of this must be navigated to make progress forward.

For those who are "overly smart" and believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took an incredibly long time to drive the Russians out of the village of Robotyne, they must have missed the defense system that needed to be overcome in order to push the russians away from the Mariupol highway and gradually approach the village, encircle it, and finally seize control. Truly, a monumental task has been accomplished.

The russians are establishing firing points (AGS, heavy machine guns), and they mine the routes to them. They themselves move along designated paths. Our positions in the liberated territory are surrounded by mines and tripwires. Paths are cleared for ingress, and sappers gradually clear the area.

Frequently, the hidden "surprises" detonate during shelling, triggered by fires that start due to the shelling (weeds, shrubs, and trees catch fire, setting off tripwires). At times, we ourselves discover and call in sappers to clear specific areas.

There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, but the issue of initial setbacks is overlooked. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, even due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.

There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, I'll skip the topic of initial setbacks. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, especially due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.

These actions are justified by the fact that they save lives. I spoke with a soldier who survived two direct hits on a Bradley during shelling. Even the most critically damaged equipment is recovered and taken for repairs. You can replace a piece of metal, even if it's expensive, but you can't repair a human life

Enemy ATGM operators position cameras in advance of their positions. This way, they can spot targets (all types of vehicles) in advance and engage them effectively. If successful, artillery finishes off the targets. Alternatively, they might start with air force, followed by artillery.

They hunt for evacuation teams – both vehicles and stations. Right under our noses, they hit an armored vehicle, and an evacuation vehicle arrived for the guys. They had to maneuver in a tight spot, moving very slowly on a narrow road, avoiding going off-road into a mined field. Taking risks as well. Fortunately, they managed to get them out.

KAB's are one of the biggest fears. The russians use them extensively. I can't speak to their accuracy, but the weaponry is powerful. They attempt to target logistics and command centers, just as we do. They don't hesitate to simply fire on roads. Forward defenses in settlements are constantly under shelling.

The aerial reconnaissance linked system Orlan-Zala-Supercam is effective and causing issues. They identify targets and launch Lances, releasing them in swarms along with KAB's. They attempt to break through and hunt down vehicles.

The recaptured positions are even more calibrated. Bombs are not spared. No lack of mines either. The tree line where one of the crews was operating was simply leveled. Only a palisade remained, and a well-made trench ceased to be usable.

The russians use a standard tactic for their armor. The route to the firing position is determined, usually in a way that keeps the vehicles under visual cover of the tree lines and eventually positions them in an open space for shooting. They quickly expend their ammunition and retreat

Vehicle cannot be completely concealed. Dust clouds are visible during movement, and the vehicles can be seen shifting between tree lines, while drones provide visibility as well. The main task here is to execute the firing mission quickly enough to prevent artillery targeting or counterattacks using FPV or ATGMs.

I understand why the russians are intensively butthurt due to the loss of the village with six streets. They put in significant effort to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing. Defending is easier according to all norms. On the other hand, we're putting in a tremendous effort to break through. And when we succeed, it shows that our efforts are paying off

Thank you for your attention. I might continue sharing in the future. Meanwhile, I invite you to follow on Facebook and TG (Telegram): facebook.com/osolonko

t.me/silukr/122

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-27
#1033

@lowfour (post #1031)

qué fácil es decir que la contraofensiva va mal y que menudo fracaso los bradleys (que sí, vimos al principio unos que la liaron y acabaron en llamas, pero luego ya no hemos vuelto a ver nada parecido)

pero del texto se ve que los rusos, sin superioridad aérea, van a verse muy expuestos, porque entonces los obuses van a poder disparar tranquilos y tal

o sea, los f-16 (entiendo) no serían tanto para tener una zona de control de tiro más amplia, sino para que los aviones rusos no tengan fácil sus misiones sobre los blindados

por eso usa ha accedido, porque esto va muy lento y por mucho que les venga medio bien tener a los ruskis empantanaos en una guerra que no pueden ganar, tampoco les sale tan barato alargar la guerra y si viene con el fin del putinato, mejor

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-28
#1034

El resumen del día.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/163d7uu/27_aug_genius_ukrainians_use_thermal_tech_to/

Los Ukros ya atacan el siguiente pueblo después de Robotyne que está en la segunda linea de defensa rusa. No lo controlan todavía pero van a por ello.

Está todo muy minado pero usan el método de drones con infrarrojos por la tarde, cuando las minas se han calentado, que desvela exactamente la posición de las minas. Otra genialidad sacada de la necesidad. De esta forma identifican donde tienen que usar los cordeles esos explosivos para reventar minas de forma más efectiva.

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-28
#1035

@lowfour (post #1034) si no fuera por las minas, los rusos estarían retirándose a crimea ahora mismo

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-29
#1037

La BBC dice que las bajas ukras se disparan, claro... están atacando ahora. Pero los rusos siguen siendo laminados, sobre todo su artillería. De 20 piezas al día no baja.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/164bnx6/estimated_losses_as_of_august_29th/

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-29
#1038

he leido hoy no se donde que Rusia se ha guardado de mandar misiles de crucero este verano, que ha acumulado bastantes piezas para algún ataque brutal. Y sin embargo la mejora en sus stocks ha sido mínima, de modo que van a ser incapaces de realizar otra campaña de "dejemos a Ucrania a oscuras" como la del año pasado. Su capacidad de producción no de más de si.

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-29
#1039

No tienen gente, mandan a los VDV me parece a parar la brecha, porque no pueden pararlos.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1647ydr/russia_sends_some_of_its_most_elite_paratroopers/

Pocas noticias hoy, salvo un bombardeo de una serie de vehículos rusos en el pueblo justo a la derecha de Robotyne. Imagino que intentan encontrar la manera de seguir avanzando hacia Tokmak.



elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-29
#1040
Edited 2023-08-29

Image

creo que han sido más, pero menos esos 5, los han reparado y devuelto al frente

así que gran desempeño de los leopard, no?? es que sale a 1 destruido cada 15 días (bueno, más)

a este ritmo, necesitarían 3 años para destruir los 71

Image


elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-29
#1041

el martin hoy ha insistido en esto

https://twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1696491167871873427

de nada sirve la línea surovikin si no tienes artillería para protegerla (ni infantería y blindados que repelan ataques, tampoco)

así que solo los campos minados reducen la marcha de los ukr tras el destrozo en los sistemas artilleros como vimos el otro día, que llevan desde abril machacaos diariamente

bueno, las minas y supongo que algo de supremacía aérea también



elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-29
#1042

Image



elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2023-08-29
#1043

aquí galileo diciendo más o menos lo mismo que el martin, pero con datos "técnicos", las trincheras de la línea surovikin (en ese sector) son una puta mierda de zanja de 1m de profundo, vamos que te deja el culo al aire

Image


lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-29
#1044

@elarquitecto (post #1042)

Joder menuda salvajada... eso es lo que usaban los rusos en Siria, te queman vivo y te envena el fósforo blanco. Es un arma terrorífica y probablemente ilegal. Me llama mucho la atención que los Ukros la usen. A este paso qué van a usar, gas nervioso?

Pero bueno, los rusos lo han estado usando todo el rato...

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-29
#1045
Edited 2023-08-29

Muchísimos videos combate hoy. Se ve que les han dejado publicar o que hay mambo. Uno bastante brutal que os lo pongo aquí, una emboscada a rusos que caen como chinches. Si queréis lo mirar y si no pues pasad. Se ve desde lejos, osea que no hay supergore como en otras ocasiones.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/164mqm1/insane_footage_from_the_3rd_assault_brigade/

Y supongo que visteis el del blogger ruso que se cuelan sin darse cuenta en una trinchera Ukra? Luego salio corriendo y se lo cepillaron para que no delatara la posición o algo.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LoveForUkraine/comments/163m1aq/russian_military_blogger_accidentally_runs_into/

Ungaunga
Ungaunga
2023-08-29
#1046

@lowfour (post #1044) parece que lo del fósforo no es ilegal si se usa contra posiciones militares.

Ungaunga
Ungaunga
2023-08-29
#1047
Edited 2023-08-29

@lowfour (post #1038) parece que Ucrania tiene una capacidad cierta de ataque con drones kamikazes en la Rusia profunda. Pienso que Putin no ataca objetivos civiles para evitar la respuesta proporcional.

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1696650074330149253?t=fU-ZVQQLDFsTlUenCZ2MDg&s=19

lowfour
lowfour
2023-08-30
#1048

Los ataques de Pskov son muy interesantes porque

1) Está a 750km de Ucrania

2) Está cerca de las repúblicas bálticas

3) Al parecer los drones usados son unos australianos hechos de cartón... cuyo range es de 75km

Espérate que no los hayan mandado desde una báltica... o desde el interior de Rusia.



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