Contraofensiva, otoño 2022 Navidad sin ruskis en Ucrania?

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
Started 2022-10-02
375 posts
elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-05
#331

@lowfour (post #330)

sabes qué pasa? que en unos meses, les pasa como con los rodamientos de los trenes, que tendrán que empezar a desguazar otros aviones para reparar los menos malos que les queden

como encima les tengan que meter más horas de vuelo porque los drones joputas tienen un alcance de 2000km, el desgaste aumentará

y sin duda, como la otan decida de intervenir, la guerra será como la del golfo, para cuando entren los abrams en moscú, no queda nada que les pueda parar, salvo los presidiarios esos con tirachinas o algo así

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-10
#332
Edited 2022-12-10

https://www.ft.com/content/dcdd09bf-440a-4648-9664-6084b11dddd4?shareType=nongift

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Rockets and mortar rounds rained down on Ukrainian military positions on the eastern edge of the city of Bakhmut, spraying shrapnel and sending troops diving for cover.

Then came the Russian infantry, charging in a first world war-style attack across a no man’s land of shredded trees and artillery craters. The Ukrainians popped up and mowed down many of them with machine guns and grenade launchers.

Moments later, the scenes were repeated — although this time the Russian fighters had to navigate their comrades’ bodies. Again many were cut down by Ukrainian bullets.

“It’s like a conveyor belt,” Kostyantyn, an exhausted Ukrainian machine-gunner who described the scene to the Financial Times, said of the Russian tactics. “For what? A fucking metre of our land.”

The scene on Sunday in the frontline city of Donetsk province is one that troops say has played out repeatedly in recent days as Russia, desperate for a battlefield victory after humiliating defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson this autumn, refocuses its offensive in an area Russian president Vladimir Putin first invaded in 2014 and claimed to have annexed in September.

**They are just meat to Putin**,” Kostyantyn added, referring to the Russian soldiers, “**and Bakhmut is a meat grinder.**

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The battle in the city began in May, heated up in August and has escalated significantly over the past two weeks. And yet the frontline has barely moved in seven months, with both sides fighting for mere metres of territory.

**Ukrainian soldiers described the intensity of the recent fighting in and around Bakhmut, particularly the artillery barrages, as greater than anything they had experienced anywhere in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February.**

“A very fierce confrontation is ongoing there, every metre counts,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his Wednesday night address. During a visit to his troops 40km north-west of Bakhmut on Tuesday, he called the fighting around the city the “most difficult area that protects not only the east but our entire state”.

“Hell. Just hell,” is how Volodymyr, a senior officer who declined to give his last name because he was not authorised to speak to journalists, described the fighting. He was with a group of soldiers taking a short rest before returning to the battle.

“I’ll pray for you,” another soldier, manning a checkpoint on the city’s outskirts, told the FT after warning that the road ahead had been shelled moments before. “And you should pray for yourself.”

Until 2016, when Ukraine began a period of decommunisation, Bakhmut was named Artemivsk in honour of the Bolshevik revolutionary Fyodor “Artem” Sergeyev, a friend of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. It has endured repeated military onslaughts: the Nazis seized it during the second world war before the Red Army retook it, and Russia’s proxy separatist forces briefly controlled it in 2014.

But with the fighting reminiscent of trench warfare, the city is experiencing an unparalleled level of death and destruction. Ukrainian fighters say it is a ghost town on its way to becoming a wasteland like nearby Izyum and the southern port city of Mariupol before it.

**Once boasting a population of more than 70,000 and famous for its salt mines and sparkling wine factory, much of the city has been reduced to rubble after six months of air strikes and heavy artillery attacks.** Fewer than 7,000 residents remain and they subsist mostly on humanitarian assistance. There is no power, water, gas or heating.

**The city centre, which once bustled with a large outdoor market and cafés, is a fortress, with “hedgehog” angled metal bars and other anti-tank defences blocking the main avenues.** 

The only traffic is ambulances racing the wounded to medical points and tanks and other military vehicles trundling along chewed-up roads and through tangles of fallen electric tram lines. 

**Over the course of Monday morning when the FT visited, there was rarely more than five seconds between artillery explosions — on both sides of the frontline. The ground shook and the otherwise clear winter sky was hazy from the smoke. Russian drones could be heard buzzing overhead, apparently looking for targets.**

Kyiv and Moscow have been tight-lipped about their casualties around Bakhmut but both are clearly suffering heavy losses. Each side has estimated they are killing dozens, if not hundreds, of enemy fighters every day but the true figures are impossible to verify.

Lidiya Vasylenko, a Ukrainian military press officer, said Russian forces had entered the city’s eastern outskirts in recent days. But she stressed that Ukrainian resistance and the harsh winter, which she said favoured her troops, were likely to minimise further gains. 

“The ground is cold and hard, so even when they [Russian forces] take new forward positions, they have difficulty digging in deep enough to shelter themselves from our counter-attacks and they have to fall back,” she said.

Roman, a driver with Ukraine’s 24th Mechanised Brigade of King Danylo, adds wood to a fire to stave off the bitter cold

Elite Ukrainian units, such as the 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade and 93rd Mechanised Brigade, have borne the brunt of the fighting, Vasylenko said. But reinforcements had been brought in over the past two weeks, including from Kherson, various special forces units, territorial defence outfits, and international legion troops, Vasylenko said.

Russia has done the same, moving forces from the Kharkiv and Kherson regions to Bakhmut.

**British intelligence has said that members of the Wagner Group**, founded by close Putin ally Evgeny Prigozhin, **were leading the Russian charge in Bakhmut**. Prigozhin has recruited fighters on visits to prison colonies in far-flung Russian regions.

Moscow’s autumn mobilisation campaign has also put more bodies on the ground. **Putin said on Wednesday that 150,000 mobilised Russian troops were now in Ukraine, with half involved in active combat.** 

Some Ukrainian soldiers likened Russia’s strategy in Bakhmut to that in Luhansk province farther east earlier this year, where constant artillery barrages wore down Ukrainian forces and pulverised buildings, making their defence impossible.

**Others said there seemed to be neither strategy nor logic to the Russian offensive beyond symbolism.** 

**“Putin’s current fixation with continuing offensive operations around Bakhmut and elsewhere is contributing to Ukraine’s ability to maintain the military initiative in other parts of the theatre**,” said the Institute for the Study of War.

Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group that tracks the war, said Russian forces were “probably seeking to cut off a ground line of communication between Bakhmut and Kostyantynivka” — a town 25km to the west.

Signs of Russia’s attempted encirclement were evident on Monday, with fresh attacks north of Bakhmut towards the town of Soledar; south of the city at Opytne, where Russian forces managed to gain ground last weekend; and behind the front lines in the village of Ivanivske that sits along one of two key arteries leading to the city.

The FT witnessed the artillery barrage in Ivanivske, which struck several cottages and a farm building, causing fires to break out. 

But Kostyantyn and Vasylenko both said they were confident Bakhmut would remain under Kyiv’s control through the winter.

That is of little consolation to the residents cowering in the remnants of their homes. Their nerves frayed, some wore fear on their faces, recoiling with each explosion. Others, hardened by months of fighting, barely flinched as they wandered the streets in a state of shock. 

Vitaliy, a man in his 50s, said he was no longer afraid of dying. As a series of blasts rocked the city, he sat still on a bench in a square, sifting through a bag of food handed out at an aid centre.

He did not want to go home, he said, because it had been struck three times by artillery shells and was missing some of its walls. He blamed Ukrainian forces for the damage, saying they had moved into his neighbourhood and thus made it a target by bringing the war to his doorstep.

Kostyantyn, who had fought in Bucha near Kyiv in March where Ukrainian liberators had been greeted as heroes, said such an attitude was common.

“If they want to go to Russia, I’ll take them to the frontline and show them the way,” he said, gesturing to the battlefield. 



elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-10
#333

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lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-10
#334

@elarquitecto (post #332)

No tiene ningún sentido. Qué es lo que buscan? Desgastar a los Ukros y ganar por ser más? Ya he visto varios vídeos de un montón de rusos segados por las balas no muy lejos de las trincheras ukras. Oleadas y oleadas de carne para el picadero como en la WWI.

Imagino que esto llegará a oídos de los rusos tarde o temprano no? Estarán contentos con ello? O se encogen de hombros y ya está?

Cinta_de_Carromero
Cinta_de_Carromero
2022-12-10
#335

Es la estrategia con la que ganaron la Segunda Guerra Mundial, por eso quieren repetir ahora. Lo describieron Heinz Guderian, Panzer Meyer y los supervivientes de la División Azul entre otros, que mandaban oleadas de 50.000 en 50.000 y que eso es imposible de aguantar en el frente.

Lo que no está claro es que les vaya a funcionar ahora, sobre todo con la cantidad de vehículos y equipamiento que han perdido hasta ahora en las desastrosas derrotas que llevan desde febrero. Quizás tendrían opciones si en febrero hubieran entrado como lo llevan haciendo desde el verano en vez de a lo loco, pero yo creo que ahora no van a poder ganar porque como intentaran meter las oleadas de 50.000 en 50.000 otra vez, seguramente a Ucrania les enviarían los A-10 y la munición de perdigones de artillería con la que hacerles puré, ambos los inventaron pensando en una guerra contra la Unión Soviética tras ver cómo fue la guerra en el Ostfront.

lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-12
#336
Edited 2022-12-12

Parece que está habiendo ostias en Crimea también.

Los Wagners han perdido unos cuantos miembros (en todas las acepciones de la palabra) esta noche.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/11/europe/ukraine-crimea-melitopol-odesa-intl-hnk/index.html

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-12
#338

@lowfour (post #337)

creo que no has enlazado bien, sale la sala general

lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-12
#339

Es verdad, lo siento... a ver si lo encuentro.

lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-12
#340

Bueno, después de unos días a unos 300 rusos desmovilizados ayer pega un salto a 600, seguramente por los múltiples ataques con HIMARS

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zjstcc/russian_combat_losses_as_of_dec_12th_according_to/

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-12
#342

@lowfour (post #340)

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lo que ha bajado mucho es el equipo destruido, no?

seguramente es lo que dices, que les están pegando con himars y eso destruye a más personas que equipo

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supongo que depende de lo que enfoques, porque en la media semanal, la cosa pinta que están zumbándose más equipo ahora que antes

y esto mensual

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anda, encontré un desglose

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los 24 tanques de ayer suben la media un montón, en toda la semana llevan 47 (o sea, la mitad de eso fue ayer)



lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-12
#343

@elarquitecto (post #342)

Si, han subido varias batallas de tanques... un tanque volando a otro y tal. Sería interesante saber dónde. Puede ser que estén intentando impedir la construcción de la línea letrinot.

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-12
#344

@lowfour (post #343)

me da que lo de la linea esa caganet no le interesa a nadie más que a los rusos

tienes drones jodiéndote bases militares a 700km y te pones a hacer zanjas y poner mondongos de hormigon por si llegan tanques a un pueblo... venganomejodas

en dos paladas, un bulldozer te tapa la zanja y pasan tanques a cascoporro

y mientras, mira lo que nos cuenta el chris este

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1602028477007413250

todo ese mamotreto de hilo para decir que los ruskis van a pasarlas putas de hambre (y frío)

lo más hilarante de todo es esto

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ah, y se rumorea de que ahora a los opositores y tal, en lugar de enchironarles, les mandan al frente ucro



lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-12
#345

@elarquitecto (post #344)

Si, yo creo que vamos a ver un duelo de Apagón Ukro vs Hambruna y Frostbite Rusos. Es algo brutal.

Que hijosdeputa, han dejado Odesa a oscuras. Si eso no vale un juicio para Putin y los suyos por genocidio yo ya no se.

Creo que al final Rusia va a quedar dividida en regiones, no por USA o la UE... sino por las propias etnias rusas.

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-12
#346

hilazo!

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1602252053467865089

rusia reconoce (en sus foros internos) que su artillería es un mojón, especialmente comparada con la ucra

lo que venimos diciendo desde que llegaron los himars

rusia no es superior a ucrania en na-da

ahora ya ni en artillería, que antes era porque los rusos tenían mucha, pero llegan 4 himars y fin, 4 (bueno, unos 20, pero ya me entendéis)



lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-13
#347

Van a por melitopol, les han medio volado un puente que supongo que sirve para abastecer la ciudad o para enviar tropas. Konstantinovska está al este de la ciudad.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zkicok/the_bridge_connecting_melitopol_and/

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-13
#348

@lowfour (post #347)

pero el pavo se marcha a pie en lugar de en coche??

ese puente lo han petao los partisanos o algún comando infiltrado o algo así, porque no parece que haya sido himars ni nada, no?



lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-13
#349
Edited 2022-12-13

El NYT se hace eco de los movimientos en torno a Melitopol. Empieza la nueva fase. Ukros vs Mobicks congelados en los agujeros que hacen para escapar de los drones bombarderos.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/13/world/russia-ukraine-news#ukraine-ratchets-up-attacks-in-a-russian-occupied-city-described-as-a-gateway-to-crimea

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine is stepping up efforts to isolate and degrade Russian forces in and around Melitopol, a city in the Zaporizhzhia region that would figure prominently in any Ukrainian offensive to drive Russian forces from southern Ukraine.

Kyiv has been using long-range precision missile strikes, sabotage missions and targeted assassinations to put pressure on the city, which is known as the “gateway to Crimea” because of its location at the crossroads of two major highways and a vital rail line.

Officials in both countries have acknowledged the recent attacks on Russian command centers, ammunition depots and supply routes in Melitopol, whose prewar population was about 150,000. The aftermath of some of the attacks have been captured on video shared on social media by Russian soldiers.

It is not clear whether the strikes were the prelude to an offensive or a deceptive ploy as Ukrainian forces prepare to move on Russian forces elsewhere. But military analysts described them as significant and said they fit Ukraine’s pattern of using precision missiles to strike Russian logistical targets.

Melitopol is a key hub, and regaining control over it could help Ukraine’s forces take back Russian-held areas in the Zaporizhzhia region and Kherson regions. That could then potentially give them a path to drive Russian forces back to Crimea.

“All this hangs completely on Melitopol,” Oleksiy Arestovych, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in his daily podcast. “If Melitopol falls, the entire Russian defense up to Kherson collapses, and the Ukrainian armed forces ‘jump’ right to the border with Crimea.”

On Monday night, a bridge in Melitopol leading over the Molochna River was sabotaged by Ukraine’s forces, Ukrainian and Russian officials said. Video showed two pillars underneath the span had been blown up, compromising a key Russian supply route to Melitopol.

A day earlier, the Melitopol Christian Church — which the city’s exiled mayor said was being used as a Russian base — had gone up in flames.

That came after residents reported at least 10 large explosions on Saturday night and Sunday morning, although it was not clear whether some of those were Russian air defenses at work.

In one instance, several blasts hit a hotel and restaurant complex on the outskirts of the city, according to Ukrainian officials and video of the aftermath. The mayor, Ivan Fedorov, said that the facility was being used by Russian intelligence.

Evgeny Balitsky, the Russian-appointed head of the part of the Zaporizhzhia region that Russia claimed to annex in September, said that the facility had been hit while “peaceful citizens” were eating on Saturday evening. He said that two people had been killed and 10 injured.

Ukraine has also targeted members of the local Russian occupation administration. Nikolai Volyk, the deputy head of the occupation government in Melitopol, survived an bomb attack outside his home last week, the Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported.

On Tuesday afternoon, a loud explosion was reported in the center of the city, Mr. Federov said in a statement. The explosion was followed by sustained gunfire, he said. It was not immediately clear what might have been targeted.

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-13
#350

@lowfour (post #349)

o sea, que no han sido partisanos, están ya buscando los puntos débiles para darles con todo lo gordo

lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-13
#351

@elarquitecto (post #350)

Si si.... lo de los barracones ha sido espantoso, se han petado a los wagner y los vídeos eran dantescos. Ahora el puente... están preparando la jugada, como hicieron con Kherson. Es obvio que hay cerebro en lo que hacen, sacan partido a los cacharros que tienen, no como Putin que manda más carne a la picadora para conseguir... nada.

Cinta_de_Carromero
Cinta_de_Carromero
2022-12-14
#352

Yo creo que lo de Melitopol es una maniobra de distracción para atacar por otro lado, igual que hicieron con el amago de Jerson en verano y que finalmente era una distracción para atacar Kharkiv, Liman e Izium.

¿Será Lugansk?

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-14
#353

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1602937434974601217

yo habría traducido; estamos en la mierda, no esperen que salgamos


lowfour
lowfour
2022-12-14
#354
Edited 2022-12-14

Ojooooo... 740 finados ruskyis... estamos viendo ostias como panes, me pregunto si no ha empezado una ofensiva Ukra en alguna zona.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zllpsm/russian_losses_as_of_dec_14th_according_to_the/


elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-14
#355

@lowfour (post #354)

o el frío o ambas cosas

https://twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1603008278581182465

se ve que hay órdenes de tomar bakmut y o son muy patanes o los ucros tienen una muralla que ni king kong

de todos modos, ya nos enteraremos en 2 o 3 días de lo que pasa, aunque yo apuesto por el frío y que están encontrando fiambres congelados en las trincheras y cosas así

Cinta_de_Carromero
Cinta_de_Carromero
2022-12-14
#356

La horda lleva días atacando todo el frente de Bakhmut en oleadas al estilo de la Primera/Segunda Guerra Mundial, están intentando romper las líneas por alguno de los puntos con idea de envolver la ciudad, igual que hicieron en Stalingrado o este año en Popasna y Severodonestk. De ahí viene la cantidad de bajas, es todo estrategia zarista de manual.

Realmente la estrategia no es soviética como muchos creen, la utilizó la Unión Soviética a partir de 1942/1943 pero porque estaban perdiendo la guerra y no les quedó otra, tuvieron que sacar del gulag a los oficiales de la escuela militar zarista para ver si lograban parar el avance alemán. Les pilló a medias el plan de sovietizar el ejército cuando ocurrió la invasión en el verano de 1941 y de ahí que tirasen de la estrategia zarista cuando tenían a los alemanes literalmente a las puertas de Moscú, pero no la inventaron en la URSS ni fue su plan original de guerra.

Para ganar contra las oleadas los ucranianos necesitan mucha artillería, como hizo el II Reich en la batalla de Tanenberg, matándoles a distancia antes de que lleguen a la línea del frente.

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-15
#357

estos explican un poco lo de bakmut

menudos linces los ruskys

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-20
#358

https://twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1605150765244649472

zelensky en bakmut!

mientras putin comía patatas con el lukas

elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-20
#359

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acordados que cuando fue a jersón, al poco de ser liberada, iba en mangas de camisa

ahora le han puesto chaleco y de los gordos

lo que no lleva es casco, pero deben de saber seguro que los rusos están camino viiladiego o por ahí... vía sevastopol

vamos, que los wagner se han pirao porque no pueden más


elarquitecto
elarquitecto
2022-12-20
#360

@elarquitecto (post #359)

pues no parece que los ruskis hayan dejado bakmut, eh?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1605103796211748864?cxt=HHwWgMCojcDZvMYsAAAA

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1605156450376073216?cxt=HHwWgIC-mbDS1MYsAAAA

este último lo dice claro, hoy todo como ayer, vienen, les zurramos y se van

vamos, que zelensky ha ido a zona de guerra y de las calentitas


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