Vale RUSIA SE QUEDA SIN PASTA Y TIENE QUE RECORTAR EL PRESUPUESTO DE DEFENSA FIN
https://www.svd.se/a/zAvb35/ryssland-drar-ner-man-drar-i-bada-andarna
Putin is raising taxes to cover his military spending – despite this, Russia's defense budget is expected to decrease next year. "A signal that Russia cannot afford this in the long term," says economist Torbjörn Becker.
Manne Berggren Wiklund
Published15:13
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Documents show that Russia plans to reduce its defense budget next year. This is reported by Reuters , which writes that Russian defense spending will be reduced by the equivalent of 100 billion kronor.
That's not a huge number in this context. In 2025, the defense budget amounted to 13.5 trillion rubles, or about 1,500 billion kronor. Next year, 2026, the Russian defense budget is expected to drop to 12.6 trillion rubles, or about 1,400 billion kronor.
But the fact that Russia, during an ongoing war, where it has been constantly rearming up, is now forced to cut back on military spending is a clear break from the trend, says Torbjörn Becker, head of the Eastern Economic Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics.
– It doesn't lead to an immediate end to the fighting. But it's clearly a signal that Russia actually can't really afford this in the longer term. Which is the opposite of the narrative they're trying to tell us. That they're strong and invincible. This shows quite clearly that Russia doesn't have infinite resources.
Becker's research team flagged this in a report earlier in April. The Russian treasury doesn't have enough money to keep up with the pace. Somewhere along the way, they will have to either cut their military spending or raise taxes.
– Now they do both. They pull on both ends of the budget restrictions, that's what you have to do when the money is running out.
– To be honest, Putin doesn't want people to understand how much they are losing by fighting this war. Even an authoritarian leader has to deal with that balancing act. Now they have had many years of just spending more and more on the military and everything else has had to be put aside. Now they have probably reached a point where they realize that they need to cut back on the military.
Raising VAT – will go to the military
Because at the same time as Russia is cutting its defense budget, it is also raising the standard VAT level by two percent.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says in a statement that the increased VAT will generate the equivalent of just over 135 billion kronor for the treasury and that it will primarily go to the military and the defense industry. Including 10 billion kronor in an investment in drones.
But it will not be enough to maintain last year's level. A major factor behind why these measures have become necessary for Russia is considered to be the sanctions from outside the country.
– One of the goals of the sanctions is to reduce revenues from oil and gas sales. And also to make it more difficult for Russia to borrow money on the international market. That is what they wanted to achieve. Then it may have taken too long, but nevertheless the sanctions have an effect, says Becker.
Last week, the Russian Finance Ministry announced that around 20 percent of the state budget will consist of revenues from oil and gas, a sharp drop compared to the 50 percent reported the same month last year.

Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
The reason for the large loss is believed to be partly the sanctions against Russia, Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and global oil prices. Therefore, other ways are now being sought to finance the war in Ukraine.
– VAT means higher prices for all consumption. Of course, that will fuel inflation. It will reduce the purchasing power of households and businesses. This is another step in how Moscow is shifting resources from the private sector and throwing them at the war.
Last year, Russia's military spending increased by almost 40 percent, but now it is decreasing instead. The Russian economic measures are a break from the trend, but talking about an impending economic collapse is perhaps pulling too big gears, says Torbjörn Becker.
– Russia is on a downward spiral in terms of economic development. They are clearly on a bad economic path. Calling it a collapse is really mostly a matter of definition, but the question is whether Russia could have a financial crisis as a result of this, the answer is yes, the risk is increasing.