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Mira, para mi está claro. El contenido que estamos poniendo aquí me vale muchísimo más que cualquier medio de comunicación y tal. Vale que tenemos nuestras paranoias y nuestras neurosis personales... pero para mi, para navegar este mundo que está cambiando me vale mucho más que leer el pís o incluso el NYT.
Voy a ver si mejoro el agente de ChatGPT y nos da un poco más de chicha.
Nuevo método de análisis más manual y más en profundidad
The past week has been one of the most dynamic of 2025. It coincided with the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump held a closely‑watched meeting. Meanwhile in Washington, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth summoned the entire cohort of U.S. generals and admirals to Quantico, Virginia for a surprise gathering next weekreuters.com. The Kremlin reacted strongly to Trump’s subsequent statements, while heavy fighting and a new barrage of drone and missile strikes continued on multiple fronts in Ukraine.
This report summarizes the key events of the last five days, analyses their significance, and outlines likely trajectories for the coming week and mid‑term future. Citations are provided from trustworthy news sources and analysis organizations.
Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and Russian‑held territory: Ukrainian drones hit the resort town of Foros in Crimea, killing three people and injuring 16aljazeera.com. Russian officials claimed that the attack was “deliberate” even though no military targets were nearbyaljazeera.com. Other Ukrainian attacks struck a gas station in Pervomaisk (Luhansk), the Saratov oil refinery, and the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Samaraaljazeera.com. A man was killed in Kostiantynivka (Donetsk) by Russian shellingaljazeera.com.
European airspace violations: Germany scrambled two Eurofighter jets to track a Russian reconnaissance aircraft that entered neutral airspace over the Baltic Seaaljazeera.com. Estonia announced that the U.N. Security Council would meet to discuss Russian airspace violationsaljazeera.com.
Diplomacy: Zelenskyy prepared for a bilateral meeting with Trump at the UN; Macron warned that confiscating frozen Russian assets could cause “total chaos”aljazeera.com.
Leadership changes: Russian Colonel‑General Alexander Lapin was dismissed from military servicealjazeera.com. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area while Russian forces advanced near Lyman, Pokrovsk and Siverskunderstandingwar.org.
Trump–Zelenskyy meeting & U.S. shift: After meeting Zelenskyy, Trump stated that he had “great respect” for Ukraine’s resistance and believed Ukraine, with EU and NATO support, could win back all of its territoryunderstandingwar.org. He wrote that Russia looked like a “paper tiger” and urged NATO countries to shoot down Russian aircraft violating their airspaceunderstandingwar.org.
Russian strategic aims: The Russian Ministry of Defence publicly acknowledged that if its forces capture Kupyansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast they intend to push further west and south toward Chuhuiv, Izyum and Vovchansk, creating a buffer zone and potentially linking up operations toward Slovyansk and Kramatorskunderstandingwar.org. ISW assessed this statement as undermining Moscow’s previous claims that its objectives were limited to four Ukrainian regionsunderstandingwar.org.
Ukrainian strikes in Russia: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces reported drone strikes on oil pipeline stations in Bryansk and Samara regionsunderstandingwar.org. Russian authorities said over 130 drones were intercepted across Russia and occupied Crimeaunderstandingwar.org.
Zelenskyy’s UNGA address: In his speech to the U.N. General Assembly Zelenskyy warned that Russia’s war was unleashing a dangerous arms race and urged world powers to adopt global rules limiting the use of artificial‑intelligence weaponsreuters.com. He argued that stopping Russia now was cheaper than waiting to see who would be the first to put a nuclear‑armed drone into the sky and accused President Putin of seeking to expand the conflict beyond Ukrainereuters.com.
Trump’s dramatic U‑turn: Trump publicly asserted that Ukraine could reclaim all its occupied territory and called Russia a “paper tiger” with a failing economyabcnews.go.com. This marked a sharp reversal from previous months when he urged Ukraine to make concessions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to convey Trump’s message that Moscow must take “meaningful steps toward a durable resolution”abcnews.go.com.
Kremlin reaction: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had “no alternative” but to continue the war and dismissed Trump’s remarks as misinformedaljazeera.com. He insisted Russia would keep fighting to ensure its interests and rejected the notion that Ukraine could recapture territoryaljazeera.com.
Economic measures: Russia’s finance ministry proposed raising the value‑added tax from 20 % to 22 % to fund defence and security, reflecting the economic strain of the waraljazeera.com.
Ukrainian drone attack on Novorossiysk: A daytime Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian port city of Novorossiysk killed at least two people and injured employees of a Russian‑Kazakh oil projectaljazeera.com. Russia claimed that 1,495 Ukrainian troops were killed in 24 hours of fightingaljazeera.com (the figure is unverified).
Zelenskyy at UNGA: Zelenskyy warned world leaders that stopping Russia now is cheaper than a future nuclear‑armed drone race and said artificial intelligence could be the most destructive arms racealjazeera.com. He urged urgent action while cautioning that international law alone will not stop aggressionabcnews.go.com.
Diplomatic contacts: Ukraine and Syria restored diplomatic ties after breaking off relations in 2022aljazeera.com. Peskov rejected Trump’s “paper tiger” remark and claimed Russia maintained macro‑economic stabilityaljazeera.com. Lavrov met Rubio at the UN, accusing Kyiv and Europe of prolonging the waraljazeera.com.
Russian wartime budget: Russia unveiled its 2026 wartime budget, proposing to raise VAT to 22 % and forecasting growth to slow to 1 % in 2025 and 0.5 % in 2026aljazeera.com.
Ukrainian naval drones hit Russian ports: Ukrainian naval drones struck Novorossiysk and Tuapse again, causing Russia’s Transneft to temporarily suspend oil terminal operationsaljazeera.com. Ukrainian sources also said their forces hit oil infrastructure near Tuapse and Novorossiysk.
Nuclear‑plant incidents: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said a drone was downed 800 m from the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant after 22 Russian drones were detected nearbyaljazeera.com. Russia claimed Ukraine attempted an attack on the Kursk Nuclear Power Plantaljazeera.com.
Infrastructure attacks: A Russian strike on critical infrastructure in Chernihiv caused major power cuts affecting about 30,000 peoplealjazeera.com.
European drone anxiety: Denmark’s second‑biggest airport, Billund, and Copenhagen Airport were briefly closed amid reports of illegal drone activity; police logged more than 500 possible drone sightings in a single day and officials said Denmark lacks ground‑based air defences to counter such incursionsreuters.com.
Western responses: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for “effective deterrence” and said NATO would use all necessary tools to defend against Russian airspace violationsaljazeera.com. NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte endorsed Trump’s comment that member states should shoot down Russian drones and planes entering their airspacealjazeera.com.
Diplomacy and politics: Zelenskyy told Axios that he is prepared to step down once the war is overaljazeera.com. Trump said NATO’s relationship with the U.S. was the strongest everaljazeera.com. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called Trump to discuss Central European energy security and dependence on Russian suppliesaljazeera.com. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Moscow remained ready for peace talks but insisted its war aims remained unchangedaljazeera.com.
Russian attack on Kherson: Russian aircraft and artillery bombed residential areas in the Kherson region, killing a 74‑year‑old woman and injuring two others; about 70 homes and an administrative building were damagedaljazeera.com.
Ukrainian strike in Russia: Ukrainian forces struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia, causing a confirmed firealjazeera.com.
**Russian occupation of Yunakivka: The Russian Ministry of Defence announced that its forces had occupied the Ukrainian village of Yunakivka in Sumy regionaljazeera.com.
Zelenskyy’s statements: In an Axios interview, Zelenskyy warned Russian officials to know where their bomb shelters were if Moscow continued its offensivealjazeera.com. He asked Trump to lift restrictions on the use of American‑made long‑range weapons and reportedly requested Tomahawk missilesaljazeera.com.
Regional tensions: Zelenskyy accused reconnaissance drones “likely Hungarian” of violating Ukrainian airspace and called for investigationsaljazeera.com. Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó dismissed the allegation as “losing his mind”aljazeera.com. Ukraine banned three Hungarian military officials from entering, while the EU agreed to develop a “drone wall” along its borders with Russia and Ukrainealjazeera.com. Moldova barred two pro‑Russian parties from its upcoming parliamentary election and arrested individuals accused of receiving Russian fundingaljazeera.com.
Energy diplomacy: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko proposed expanding Belarus’s nuclear power plant or building a second one to supply electricity to Russian‑occupied Ukrainian territoriesaljazeera.com. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said the plan puts all of Europe at riskaljazeera.com.
U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has summoned generals and admirals from around the world to a rare meeting in Quantico, Virginia next week. Reuters quoted officials saying the event is expected to focus on instilling a “warrior ethos”, but it could also touch on substantive issues such as the Trump administration’s new national defence strategy and plans to shrink the senior‑most ranksreuters.com. Another Reuters report noted that Hegseth, a former Fox News host, has moved quickly to reshape the department: he fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and several senior commanders, ordered at least a 20 % reduction in four‑star officers and renamed the Pentagon the “Department of War”reuters.com. The sudden summons upended officers’ schedules and created uncertainty among commandersreuters.com.
Consolidating control & loyalty: The abrupt summons of all generals and admirals—many of whom command troops across the globe—suggests Hegseth seeks to ensure loyalty after months of high‑profile firings. Bringing them to Quantico allows him to deliver a unified message, monitor their reactions, and perhaps identify dissenters. Trump’s surprise at the meeting indicates Hegseth is acting independently to enforce discipline.
Preparing for potential escalation: Trump’s sudden rhetorical shift in support of Ukraine and willingness to allow NATO states to shoot down Russian aircraftunderstandingwar.org could portend a more confrontational U.S. posture. A meeting with senior commanders might discuss contingencies should Russia retaliate or if U.S. forces become directly involved. The “warrior ethos” theme may be a motivational cover for operational briefings about an expanded mission set.
Institutional reshaping: By cutting senior ranks and removing leaders associated with diversity initiativesreuters.com, Hegseth is aligning the military with Trump’s nationalist agenda. The Quantico meeting offers a venue to explain new command structures and the expectation that officers adhere to the administration’s political vision.
Mitigating internal dissent: Since many officers have privately expressed concern about political interference, summoning them en masse could be a show of force, signalling that further dissent will not be tolerated. It may also be designed to pre‑empt any behind‑the‑scenes pushback against Trump’s more hawkish stance.
For months Trump advocated negotiations and suggested Ukraine might need to cede territory. After meeting Zelenskyy on 23 September he abruptly declared that Ukraine could retake all of its occupied land and even endorsed shooting down Russian jets violating NATO airspacereuters.com. Reuters noted that this rhetorical shift has not been accompanied by substantial new U.S. assistance; instead Trump has shifted the burden of support to European alliesreuters.com. Possible explanations include:
Intelligence briefings: Zelenskyy told reporters that Trump seemed “well‑informed” and aware of more details about Russian weaknessesabcnews.go.com. Briefings from U.S. intelligence, which show Russia’s economic and industrial strugglesunderstandingwar.org and battlefield casualties, may have convinced Trump that Ukrainian victory is feasible.
Domestic political calculus: Trump faces growing pressure from European allies and Congress to support Ukraine. By aligning with NATO hawks who want to respond more forcefully to Russia’s airspace violations, he can present himself as a strong leader while distancing himself from accusations of softness on Russia.
Leverage in negotiations: Declaring Russia a paper tiger may be a bargaining tactic to press Moscow for concessions. Peskov’s response—that Russia has “no alternative” but waraljazeera.com—shows that the Kremlin perceives the statement as escalatory.
Coordination with Hegseth: Hegseth’s efforts to reshape the military and his call for a “warrior ethos” align with Trump’s new messaging. If the administration is preparing for a protracted conflict or contemplating limited intervention (e.g., enforcing no‑fly zones or giving Ukraine long‑range weapons), Trump needs the Pentagon’s leadership on board.
Front lines: Russian forces are pressing offensives in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts while claiming to have captured Yunakivka in Sumy regionaljazeera.com. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone and missile strikes deep into Russia, targeting refineries and pipelinesaljazeera.comaljazeera.com.
Airspace & hybrid incidents: Ukraine’s military intelligence said Russia deliberately flew drones into Polish airspace to test NATO’s response and increase pressure on Western partners, noting that some unmanned aircraft entered from Belarus and penetrated deep into Polandreuters.com. Denmark’s Billund and Copenhagen airports were briefly closed amid a wave of more than 500 reported drone sightings, and Danish authorities acknowledged they lacked ground‑based air defences to counter such incursionsreuters.com. German and NATO leaders have called for stronger deterrence measures, while Ukrainian naval drones continue to disrupt Russian Black Sea oil exportsaljazeera.com.
Diplomacy: Trump’s shift has unsettled Russia. While Peskov says Moscow is open to talksaljazeera.com, the Kremlin simultaneously insists on continuing its offensivealjazeera.com. Zelenskyy is lobbying for Tomahawk missiles and looser restrictions on U.S. weaponsaljazeera.com.
Domestic politics: Zelenskyy signalled willingness to step down after the waraljazeera.com, potentially appealing to Ukrainians concerned about wartime leadership staying in power indefinitely. Meanwhile, Russia raised VAT and cut economic forecastsaljazeera.com, highlighting war‑driven fiscal strains.
Escalation of drone and missile warfare: Ukraine is likely to continue targeting Russian oil facilities and logistics hubs (e.g., Afipsky, Tuapse, Novorossiysk) to degrade Russia’s revenue and supply lines. Russia may respond with intensified strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure—particularly energy and transport networks—risking wider humanitarian impacts.
NATO airspace enforcement: After Trump’s call for shooting down Russian aircraft, NATO states may be more willing to engage intruding drones and jets. This could lead to the first direct kinetic incident between NATO and Russian aircraft if Moscow continues incursions. Both sides will probably try to avoid escalation but miscalculations are possible, especially near the Baltic states or Poland.
Hegseth’s Quantico meeting outcomes: We may see announcements of further cuts to senior military ranks or new directives emphasising “warfighting culture.” The meeting could also foreshadow U.S. decisions to provide Ukraine with long‑range strike capabilities (e.g., ATACMS or Tomahawk missiles) or to ease restrictions on their use—requests that Zelenskyy reportedly made directly to Trump during their UN meetingreuters.com. Watch for messaging that positions the Pentagon as unified behind Trump’s tougher stance.
Russian reaction to Trump’s U‑turn: The Kremlin will likely intensify propaganda portraying the U.S. as escalating the war. It may launch demonstrative attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure or continue airspace provocations to test NATO resolve. Domestically, Russia may announce further mobilisation or production measures to offset battlefield losses.
Diplomatic manoeuvring: Lavrov and Rubio’s meeting suggests back‑channel talks continue. EU leaders may push for progress on the “drone wall” and additional sanctions on Russian oil exports. Moldova’s election on 28 September, with pro‑Russian parties barredaljazeera.com, could trigger Russian interference or protests.
Ukrainian offensive opportunities: Russia’s admission of plans to advance beyond Kupyanskunderstandingwar.org could overstretch its forces. If Ukraine receives long‑range weapons and maintains pressure on Russian logistics, it might launch localized counter‑offensives to relieve pressure on Kharkiv or to reclaim territory near Borova and Zaporizhia. Success would depend on sustaining Western aid and training.
Russian resilience and economic stress: Raising VAT and prioritising defence spending will impose burdens on Russian consumers and could fuel domestic discontent. If battlefield losses continue and economic growth stallsaljazeera.com, the Kremlin may face increasing protests or elite pushback. Conversely, a crackdown could suppress dissent and prolong the war.
U.S. policy evolution: Trump’s rhetorical shift may translate into concrete policy—expedited weapons deliveries, approval for deeper strikes into Russia, or more robust air defence packages. A unified Pentagon under Hegseth would expedite such changes. Alternatively, if domestic opposition grows or if there are incidents with Russia, Trump might recalibrate again.
Negotiation prospects: Peskov’s claim that Moscow is still willing to talkaljazeera.com indicates that Russia seeks to shape the diplomatic narrative even while continuing the war. Should Ukraine achieve notable battlefield successes or should sanctions further degrade Russia’s economy, Moscow might reconsider its positions. However, given the Kremlin’s insistence that Ukraine cannot recapture occupied territoriesaljazeera.com, any negotiations in the near term are likely to stall.
Regional spillover: Russian violations of NATO airspace and tensions with Hungary and Moldova show that the conflict’s geographic scope could widen. The EU’s plan for a “drone wall”aljazeera.com suggests recognition of a long‑term aerial threat. Belarus’s plan to expand nuclear power to supply Russian‑occupied Ukrainian regionsaljazeera.com could heighten Western concerns about nuclear safety and increase pressure for sanctions on Belarus.
Sweden, as a NATO applicant and EU member, has a stake in the evolving dynamics. Repeated Russian incursions into Baltic airspace and the possibility of NATO forces engaging Russian drones heighten security risks in the Baltic Sea region. Sweden’s parliament recently approved additional military aid to Ukraine and is modernizing its own air defences. Residents should expect heightened military exercises in the Baltic and an increased tempo of Swedish Air Force patrols. A stable energy market also depends on Ukrainian attacks degrading Russia’s oil exports; this could lead to volatility in fuel prices.
The last five days have witnessed a dramatic rhetorical shift in Washington, intensified drone warfare, and persistent Russian offensives. Trump’s announcement that Ukraine can win back all its territory—coupled with Hegseth’s drive to instil a “warrior ethos” in the U.S. military—suggests the United States may support a more decisive Ukrainian victory. Russia’s insistence that it will fight on and its economic measures to fund the war indicate a long conflict ahead. In the coming week, watch for the outcomes of Hegseth’s Quantico meeting, potential NATO enforcement of airspace, and escalatory actions around Ukrainian and Russian oil facilities. Mid‑term, both sides will test each other’s resolve; much will depend on whether Western unity holds and whether the Kremlin can sustain its military and economic campaign.
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