Algo pasa con la ofensiva rusa. Está atascada
lowfour
Started 2022-04-20
4339 posts
@lowfour (post #870) Todo va tan bien que Putin tiene que hacer esto:
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fires-five-generals-russia-military-failures-ukraine-continue-1712053
@lowfour (post #866) Lo mismo dicen en understandingwar: Putin priorizó la conquista del Donbass, a cualquier precio, y para ello retiró tropas de Kherson para concentrarlas en el este. Los ucranianos no cayeron en la misma trampa, y se dedican a resistir pero sin obcecarse, para ir a por el sur. Le he leído a varios analistas que consideran lo de Putin un error estratégico, y que en cuanto lleguen las nuevas unidades de artillería lo deberían pagar caro. Lo de Sievierodonetsk debería ser la culminación del ataque ruso.
Edited 2022-06-01
@LurkerIII (post #873)
En este mismo sentido habla el NYT hoy. Que los errores garrafales siguen, que es un tema estructural de su ejército. No es un tema de un mal general o un mal plan, es que su ejército tiene una forma operativa muy deficiente. Seguramente tema comunicaciones, tema jerarquía en el combate, etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/us/politics/russia-military-eastern-ukraine.html?smid=url-share
Russia’s military is repeating mistakes in Eastern Ukraine, the U.S. says.
WASHINGTON — The Russian military, beaten down and demoralized after three months of war, is making the same mistakes in its campaign to capture a swath of eastern Ukraine that forced it to abandon its push to take the entire country, senior American officials say.
While Russian troops are capturing territory, a Pentagon official said that their “plodding and incremental” pace was wearing them down, and that the military’s overall fighting strength had been diminished by about 20 percent. And since the war started, Russia has lost 1,000 tanks, a senior Pentagon official said last week.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia appointed a new commander, Gen. Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, in April in what was widely viewed as an acknowledgment that the initial Russian war plan was failing.
Soon after his arrival, General Dvornikov tried to get disjointed air and land units to coordinate their attacks, American officials said. But he has not been seen in the past two weeks, leading some officials to speculate as to whether he remains in charge of the war effort.
Russian pilots also continue to demonstrate the same risk-averse behavior they did in the early weeks of the war: darting across the border to launch strikes and then quickly returning to Russian territory, instead of staying in Ukrainian air space to deny access to their foes. The result is that Russia still has not established any kind of air superiority, officials said.
The Russian military has made some progress in the east, where concentrated firepower and shortened supply lines have helped its forces fight intense battles in recent days. After three bloody months, Russia finally took Mariupol in mid-May, potentially creating a land bridge from the Russian-controlled Crimean Peninsula to the south.
As Russia struggles to move forward, Ukraine has also suffered setbacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine recently said that as many as 100 Ukrainian servicemen might be dying every day in the fighting. And on Tuesday, Russian troops advanced toward the center of Sievierodonetsk, a city that has become a central focus for the military since it shifted its attention to the east.
But some of the areas that Russian forces managed to seize have been quickly contested again, and sometimes retaken, by Ukrainian troops.
Consider Kharkiv. Russia spent six weeks bombarding the eastern city, once home to 1.5 million people, as troops encircled it.
A school destroyed by bombardment in the village of Vilkhivka, which is east of Kharkiv.
But by May 13, control of the city had flipped again. “The Russians took Kharkiv for a short period of time; the Ukrainians counterattacked and took Kharkiv back,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said at a news conference at the Pentagon last week. “We’ve seen them really proceed at a very slow and unsuccessful pace on the battlefield.”
Ukraine is now pushing Russian troops north and east from Kharkiv, “in some cases all the way back to Russia,” said retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “So now Ukrainians are threatening to cut off Russian lines of supply and pushing their forces to the rear.”
Cutting off Russian supply lines east of Kharkiv would put Russian troops in the same situation they were in after their advance on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, at the beginning of the war, officials said. Ukrainian units carrying shoulder-fired Javelin antitank missiles picked off Russian soldiers as miles-long Russian convoys near Kyiv stopped moving forward. The invasion stalled, and thousands of Russian troops were killed or injured. Russia then refocused its mission on the east.
In the early weeks of the war, Russia ran its military campaign out of Moscow, with no central war commander on the ground to call the shots, American and other Western officials said. In early April, after Russia’s logistics and morale problems had become clear, Mr. Putin put General Dvornikov in charge of a streamlined war effort.
General Dvornikov arrived with a daunting résumé. He started his career as a platoon commander in 1982 and later fought in Russia’s brutal second war in Chechnya. Moscow also sent him to Syria, where the forces under his command were accused of targeting civilians.
In Ukraine, he established a more streamlined process. Russian pilots began coordinating with troops on the ground toward a similar objective in the eastern region of Donbas, and Russian units were talking to one another about shared goals.
But the invasion is not “proceeding particularly differently in the east than in the west because they haven’t been able to change the character of the Russian army,” said Frederick W. Kagan, a senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. “There are some deep flaws in the Russian army that they could not have repaired in the last few weeks even if they had tried. The flaws are deep and fundamental.”
At the top of that list is the Russian army’s lack of a noncommissioned officers corps empowered to think for itself, Pentagon officials said. American troops have sergeants and platoon leaders and corporals who are given tasks and guidelines and left to accomplish those tasks as they see fit.
But Russia’s military follows a Soviet-style doctrinal method in which troops at the bottom are not empowered to point out flaws in strategy that should be obvious or to make adjustments.
The Ukrainians, after seven years of training alongside troops from the United States and other NATO countries, follow the more Western method and have proved particularly agile at adapting to circumstances, American military officials said.
A two-week fighting pause after the Russian military gave up the fight for Kyiv was not long enough to turn the campaign around, even with a more limited goal, General Breedlove said. General Dvornikov’s “new tactics, resetting the command and control so there was a focused decision maker — all that was right or proper,” he said.
But, General Breedlove added: “Even our army would be hard-pressed to refit, refurbish and reorganize in two weeks after having received such a sound whipping.” When General Dvornikov took control, “the force was thrust back into the battle too quickly. That decision had to have come from Moscow.”
After renewing an assault on the Donbas, Russia has pounded cities and villages with a barrage of artillery. But troops have not followed that up with any kind of sustained armored invasion, which is necessary if they will hold the territory they are flattening, military officials say. That means that Russia may find itself struggling to hold on to gains — as it did in Kharkiv.
Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia in the Obama administration, said Mr. Putin was still too involved in the fight.
“We keep hearing accounts of Putin getting more involved,” said Ms. Farkas, who is now executive director of the McCain Institute. “We know that if you have presidents meddling in targeting and operational military decisions, it’s a recipe for disaster.”
Edited 2022-06-01
Extensísimo y detallado hilo en Twitter que explica que los nuevos lanzamisiles M142 HIMARS de USA son MUY malas noticias para Rusia y van a signficar el tipping point en esta guerra en favor a Ucrania.
Será esto cierto de que no han luchado por mantener la ciudad?
@lowfour (post #878) no, se están dejando 60 soldados al día en la defensa
tienen bajas tochas, porque decían que 500 heridos al día, o sea, no un x3 los muertos, casi un x10, así que están dándolo todo (posiblemente los muertos sean más de 60, igual son 150 o así, pero bueno, son muchos ya 60 diarios, eh?)
lo dice phil
se habla mucho de severodonets y poco de jerson, eh?
como barran a los rusos, la cosa se puede poner malita en el donbas de rebote
Edited 2022-06-02
@elarquitecto (post #881) Gracias por el vídeo, pero estas voces sintéticas son insufribles. Un vídeo de 10 minutos se me hace de 30. ¿Por qué lo hacen?
@LurkerIII (post #883)
Yo creo que no es sintética... es que habla MUY raro. O es sintética?
Edited 2022-06-02
A ver que dice el Austriaco.
EDITO: Excelente análisis. Al parecer la ruptura en Posanka les ha creado un problemón, con los rusos atacando en forma de flor y embolsando Ukros por todos los lados. También dice que los T62 no son antiguallas, son el tanque perfecto por movilidad para el Donbas. Que también están mandado T80s. Y que los ukros empiezan a mostrar fatiga de combate.
Vamos, que está la cosa muy malita en el Donbás... pero a ver que sucede con los nuevos misiles esos.
Edited 2022-06-02
@LurkerIII (post #883) yoquesé, yo le pongo a x2 (bueno, a x1,5 que si no, se entiende regulero) y me dura el video menos
con el yago y otros hago lo mismo, sobre todo si duran más de 5 min
@lowfour (post #886)
pues el de gmitu dice que lo de popasna se sostiene a base de artillería, que avanzan 15km en todo el mes y poco más
los t-62 son antiguallas aquí y en china, igual en áfrica subsahariana no
venganomejodas, austriaco, lo que pasa que aun tienen cierto prejuicio sovietico, como si fueran la crema, pero estamos viendo que la superpotencia rusa es un bluff del copón, les han petado tanques a placer
joder, me recuerda al "total war" y juegos así, que vas tú con tu caballeria todo encabronao, pensando en que te los vas a follar, y resulta que te sacan unos piqueros de nosequépollas, especializados en joder caballería, y te la joden, porque en lugar de machacar piqueros con artillería o a flechazos, les lanzas los caballos como harías con cualquier infantería
y palmas
el gmitu lo explica guay, 3 meses, 3000 vehículos menos (incluidos 1000 tanques o más) para conquistar medio luxemburgo a base de obuses y dejarlo todo como dresde en 1945
venganomejodas
pues claro que la cosa está malita, hasta que lleguen los "piqueros" contra-batería y la cosa se "cure"
Si veis que no me meto mucho los próximos días no es que pase del foro es que me voy a perderme por Berlín una vez más. Pero os leeré fijo. Esperemos que Ucrania recupere una buena dinámica contra los orcos de Mordor.
Edited 2022-06-02
On Saturday, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War described the Battle of Sievierodonetsk as indicative of just how much Russia has lowered its ambitions since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Far from seizing the capital and toppling the government, Russia is now engaged in a "desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east," the think tank assessed.
On Tuesday, the ISW suggested that Ukraine has decided to allow Sievierodonetsk to fall, a decision that is "strategically sound, however painful." By refusing to match Russian President Vladimir Putin's "mistaken prioritization" and desire for "largely symbolic gains," Ukraine can conserve its forces to launch counterattacks where they're needed most, the ISW assessed.
@lowfour (post #890) ojo que están perdiendo jerson
y es peor, como no se retiren a crimea, les joden otros 10-15 btg que tengan por ahí
será cierto esto?
@elarquitecto (post #892) Ojalá! Esa jugada se la hizo Rommel a los ingleses y luego a los americanos varias veces. "Uy, qué acojone, me largo", y luego trincarlos durante la persecución. Hay que decir que no sirve para ganar terreno, sino para desorganizar a machacar.
Parece que los javelins siguen dando dolor de cabeza a los rusos.
@lowfour (post #898)
los javelins han dado la vuelta a la guerra, a esta y a las que vengan (si vienen)
y los drones, esos también
Edited 2022-06-03
Los del mapa acaban de publicar esta herramienta. No sé qué tal está, voy a darle un vistazo:
http://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap
Por ahora solo permite hacer zoom a nivel calle.
Please log in to reply to this discussion.
Log In