Algo pasa con la ofensiva rusa. Está atascada
lowfour
Started 2022-04-20
4339 posts
Edited 2023-01-29
@lowfour (post #3180)
esto lo vi anoche, pero pasé de mirar nada, que me fui a encogorzarme un poco, a la salud del general ese checo que lo han sacado del metal gear para ganarle al trumpista que tenían ahí, es que me hizo mucha gracia todo
de dónde salen los drones? (israel, no?)
Oye lo de la Wagner y los prisioneros cada vez me recuerda más al Arbeit Macht Frei de Auschwitz.
Menuda locura. Yo creo que llega un momento que los soldados están más muertos que vivos, si no no se explica que hagan esas cosas.
@lowfour (post #3185)
No sé, no se ve ningún ruso, a ver si estaban entrenando en una antigua trinchera o algo.
Lo que está claro es que de meterse en ese fregado, antes han bombardeado eso sin piedad, y tienen Intel en tiempo real fijo. Si no, no se van paseando tan alegremente.
Curioso el fragmento en el que un soldado parece intentar recuperar un ak sacado del barro.
@lowfour (post #3189)
vienen comentando desde que aprobaron mandar los leopards, que sin cobertura aérea (o sea, supresión total, nada de ver un mig o su-loquesea volando sobre un lepoard) no tenían mucho sentido, porque se los zumban
vamos, que los javelins rusos no eran problema (salvo que tuvieran 20 o así por cada leopard y los usaran a la vez o algo así), pero los aviones sí
y para eso quieren los f-16, porque se ve que conloquesea que tienen ahora no les llega (o sí, pero ya puestos, pues el full equip otan, leopards y avioncitos molones, porque es lo que hace la otan, guerra combinada, y ya tienen artillería y la infantería y los tanques, les faltan los aviones)
Mira otro HDLGP al que le han pagado las putas los rusos. Otro al que habrá que juzgar a su debido tiempo. Es obvio no?
@lowfour (post #3191)
otro al que le van a hacer un "metal gear" y en las próximas elecciones tienen otro ex-general petándolo fuerte o qué?
pues igual la psyop son los leopards, eh??
https://www.ft.com/content/959c4a23-676e-49d7-b25e-409fa85c397e?shareType=nongift
Ukrainian soldiers will face a steep learning curve when they clamber into a Leopard 2 tank for the first time next month. But the new tanks will be a serious upgrade from the Soviet-era models they have been fighting in over the past year.
“It’s like you have a car from the 1950s and then you sit in a Porsche,” says a person involved in organising training for Ukrainian troops.
The German government’s decision this week to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine — and allow other European capitals to do the same — will give the Ukrainian army vital new firepower as it sets out to liberate its country from Russian occupation.
With Ukrainian forces having made some decisive advances before winter set in, Kyiv and its allies are now racing to establish the new tank force in time for a possible offensive later this spring.
However, it could take several months for the bulk of the force to arrive, and it could be considerably smaller than Kyiv had hoped. Some military analysts fear that western tanks may not prove to be the game changer that many Ukrainians and their supporters imagined — even if the Ukrainians are talking up the potential.
“The question is whether 100, 150 is enough. Well, it’s enough to make a big difference,” says Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defence minister.
For months, Berlin and other western capitals had rebuffed Kyiv’s pleas for western main battle tanks, saying they were too difficult for Ukrainian forces to maintain and risked provoking Moscow. After prevaricating for weeks in the face of mounting pressure from allies, German chancellor Olaf Scholz acquiesced after securing a US promise to send Kyiv some of its own M1 Abrams tanks.
The policy shift was another pivotal moment for Ukraine’s allies as they reassess Ukraine’s changing military needs and adjust their own calculations about escalatory risk. It prompted celebrations in Kyiv where the slogan “freeing the Leopards” — the most widely available modern battle tank — has become a proxy for the west’s willingness to stand behind Ukraine all the way to victory.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the German and US moves to unlock an international tank coalition as a historic achievement. But he immediately questioned the scale of the commitment.
“The key thing now is speed and volume,” he said.
Ukraine says it needs 300 western heavy tanks to seize back its territories. It needs them fast to conduct a widely expected offensive this spring and to help fend off a possible Russian attack before then.
US President Joe Biden
Joe Biden: ‘To liberate their land, [Ukrainian soldiers] need to be able to counter Russia’s evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield in the very near term’ © Andrew Caballero/AFP/Getty Images
US president Joe Biden laid out the reasons why Ukraine needed modern tanks as he confirmed plans to send 31 M1 Abrams on Wednesday.
“To liberate their land, they need to be able to counter Russia’s evolving tactics and strategy on the battlefield in the very near term. They need to be able to improve their ability to manoeuvre on open terrain,” he said. “And they need an enduring capability to deter and defend against Russia’s aggression over the long term.”
Tactical knowledge
The Abrams may be the fastest mass-produced heavy tank in the world, but it will be slow to arrive in Kyiv. The contingent of 31 is coming directly from the manufacturer using a US government funding facility and could take several months, if not longer, to be deployed. That gives plenty of time for training and potentially a long-term commitment of US armour in Ukraine. But it will count little in the battles of 2023.
In the meantime, Ukraine will receive two battalions of Leopard 2s and one company of British Challenger 2s, making a total of about 100 tanks.
German defence minister Boris Pistorius, who is now leading the effort to assemble a fleet of Leopard 2s from multiple European armies, says they will be delivered to Ukraine in two phases: a first battalion of 40 Leopard 2s, including 14 from Germany, in about three months and a second batch of an older version of Leopard 2s, including 14 from Poland, later on. Spain could end up being one of the largest contributors to this second group, but it intends to draw on older Leopard 2s that have been mothballed and kept in storage for 10 years.
Graphic describing the main specifications of four main battle tanks from different countries
Finland, the Netherlands, Portugal and Canada are also expected to contribute.
Before they can take to the battlefield, there needs to be substantial training not just for tank crew but also for repair, maintenance and sustainment units. Logistical support and supply chains also need to be put in place.
A tank crew will require a minimum of five to six weeks of basic training, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But Ukrainian forces have shown they can adapt quickly to multiple weapons systems provided by the west.
“Ukrainian soldiers are known as fast-learners,” says Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of the Razumkov Centre think-tank in Kyiv. After a year of war, Ukraine now has some of the most experienced tank operators in the world.
A demonstrator holds a sign reading ‘Free Leopards now!’
‘Freeing the Leopards’ has become a proxy for the west’s willingness to stand behind Ukraine all the way to victory © TNN/dpa
However, making use of the new tanks is not just about acquiring the technical knowhow. It will also require tactical training — learning how to exploit the advantages of western battle tanks such as their superior armour, firing range and targeting.
To make the most of the firepower and to offset their vulnerabilities, tanks need to integrate with infantry, artillery, air defence and electronic warfare systems — so-called combined arms manoeuvre. The US began combined arms training for Ukrainians at its Grafenwoehr training area in Bavaria this month.
“There are some units of land forces which are already operating as combined arms groups,” says Zagorodnyuk. “So it’s not like Ukraine will start completely from scratch. But there is a lot of learning that needs to take place.”
Ukraine’s allies are not just donating tanks but hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled howitzers and other artillery pieces. This gives Ukraine the opportunity to learn how to integrate all this new equipment into offensive operations — assuming it can spare enough troops from frontline duties.
“It means we can train coherent units at the same time,” says Yohann Michel, of the IISS. “We need to make sure the Ukrainians can make the best use of it.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in front of the battle tank Leopard
German chancellor Olaf Scholz this week acquiesced to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after securing a US promise to send Kyiv some of its own M1 Abrams tanks © David Hecker/Getty Images
Coordinating donations of tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles and the training to combine all three would require a “very, very heavy lift” by Ukraine and its allies, according to Mark Milley, America’s top general.
Ukrainian officials have been vocal about their desire to launch a spring offensive while it has momentum and before Russia has a chance to regroup and train the hundreds of thousands of troops it has mobilised.
Avenues of attack
Western officials and many analysts expect Kyiv to try to regain the initiative and exploit the heavy losses that Russian forces appear to have suffered in the fierce battles around Soledar and Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. However, it is unclear how many casualties Ukrainian forces have also sustained in the fighting around Bakhmut and how many additional troops Kyiv has kept back for a counter-offensive. Military experts contends that for an offensive to succeed, attacking troops need to outnumber defensive ones by three to one.
One place where Ukraine could try to attack is along the Svatove-Kreminna line, a stretch of the front in the Luhansk province. A major breakthrough there could threaten Russia’s north-south supply routes to its forces trying to seize the rest of Donetsk province — one of Vladimir Putin’s main objectives for the war.
A much bigger prize for Kyiv would be to push southwards into Zaporizhzhia province all the way to the Azov sea, severing Russia’s so-called land bridge to occupied Crimea.
Either of these directions would be through open terrain, where mechanised force would be indispensable, as opposed to the more urbanised Donetsk province.
Ukrainian servicemen fire a mortar toward Russian positions on a frontline near the town of Soledar in Donetsk region
Ukrainian forces in action near Soledar. Western officials expect Kyiv to exploit the heavy losses that Russian forces appear to have suffered in the battles around this town in eastern Ukraine © Radio Liberty/Serhii Nuzhnenko via Reuters
But the Russian defensive lines along both of these axes are likely to be more formidable than anything that Ukraine has so far overcome. In the meantime, it could be the Russians who attack first. Moscow has been holding back about half of the 300,000 troops that it mobilised in the autumn and, having given them some training, they could be more effective than the first 150,000 thrown into the fight.
“Heading into 2023, Ukraine no longer has a manpower advantage and difficulties lie ahead,” says Michael Kofman, director in the Russian studies programme at CNA, a think-tank. “This will require large numbers of armoured fighting vehicles and to a much lesser extent tanks. Consequently it is a numbers game, where more is more.”
Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, says tanks integrated with artillery and infantry would be vital to any Ukrainian offensive or defensive operation. How many western tanks Ukraine needs depends on the sequence of events on the battlefield, he says. If Russia attacks first and is then weakened, giving Ukraine a counter-attacking opportunity, Kyiv will need fewer. If Ukraine embarks on its own offensive, it would need more because it would first need to break through enemy lines and then conduct a second phase of enveloping and destroying Russian troops.
Seizing a defensive position ultimately involves getting infantry into trenches, says Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, adding that the key is getting your soldiers across open terrain protected from artillery fire. “It hasn’t really changed that much in warfare since the second world war or before that.”
“In some ways the deliveries of Bradleys, or Marders or Strykers and those types of [infantry fighting] vehicles may be even more significant,” says Lee. The upgrade in Ukrainian capability from a Soviet-era armoured vehicle to a US-supplied Bradley may be greater than that from a shift from T-72 to Leopard tank.
“We shouldn’t jump to conclusions that tanks by themselves will win this war,” he says. “But they are an important contribution, and they’ll give Ukraine a better chance of success in 2023 and in 2024.”
Edited 2023-01-31
Coñoooo el Solomillov se ganó a pulso el apodo.
Mira que querencia por los corchazos ayyyy estos patriotas de mierda. Todos iguales
EDIT: Han quitado esas fotos de Solomillov cuando estaba ternesco. Madre mía.
A cambio os dejo un vídeo de un ruso que se ha ido con la Natascha a Georgia.
Seguramente lo habréis visto ya en los medios, pero el ISW dice que los rusos están preparando 200k hombres para ofensiva inminente en Luhansk. Luego lees que no es tan inminente, pero es probable que pronto.
Dicen que han comprado muchas armas de Best Korea y de Irán. Yo creo que los barbudos tampoco salen vivos de esta. Los pepinazos israelís son el preámbulo.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2023
Si, viene un año jodido de verdad en Ucrania. Pero yo creo que no hay vuelta atrás. Rusia no va a ganar esta guerra ni con carne de cañón a escala industrial, putinwaffe hipersónica ni dicks in vinegar.
@lowfour (post #3196)
tú te lo crees??
yo es que no me lo creo, pero claro, tampoco me creí lo del año pasado por estas fechas
te acuerdas? que decíamos que era cosa de biden y que les estaban alejando de la ue, que estaban torpedeando el acuerdo del gas ruso, y nosequé más... que los rusos eran casi pro-ue y todo, y la otan estaba ya obsoleta (bueno, esto lo dijo trump)
claro, los rusos a pie de calle serán pro-ue (los que no sean lazis, o sea, los de san petersburgo y algunos de moscú)
pero no contábamos con el solomillov y la don simona (y la otra del síndrome ese fetal) diciendo burradas y resetando cerebros en masa
en fin, volviendo al tema, yo no me lo creo
la ofensiva es un eufemismo de, estamos cagaos, no nos ataquéis
@elarquitecto (post #3197)
Yo creo que ISW saben de lo que hablan, debe ser el típico Think Tank que cobra pasta del estado directa o indirectamente. Bueno, mira quien mete pasta, debe ser todo el lobby armamentístico en pleno.
El ISW pronosticó que la ofensiva rusa por los Wagner a Bakhmut iba a culminar.... pero al parecer han enviado tropas aerotransportadas bien entrenadas y equipadas y están dándole duro a los Ukros. A pesar de eso el ISW no pronostica que Bakhmut vaya a caer... pero que puede que los Ukros hagan un repliege táctico para evitar muertes.
Osea, los rusos mandan oleada tras oleada de carne de presidio a ser aniquilados, luego fuerzas de wagner mejor equipadas, luego fuerzas regulares de élite o por lo menos muy superior al resto...
Y NO PUEDEN TOMAR BAKHMUT.
Si, la verdad es que no habla bien de Rusia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2023
el pavo ese, que se inventa un poco los mapitas de las ofensivas ruskis, diciendo que 50% de los aerotransportados se han volatilizado
y cúantos pueden ser ese 50%??
dara nos lo cuenta
dara y la bbc
@lowfour (post #3199)
tendremos contraofensiva ciberputi para distraernos del tema (bueno, aquí ya no)
Edited 2023-02-02
Mal asunto si lo dice el ministro de defensa Ukro.
Edited 2023-02-02
@lowfour (post #3203)
yo sigo sin creerlo, y menos cuando lees hilos como este:
te están diciendo que la "única" forma de tener resultados es mandar oleada tras oleada de soldados, que si mandas 4, pues bueno, lo peor es que mueran 32 (o sea, todos)
y claro, eso es una tasa de reposición muy alta, y para bajarla hay que tirar mucho obús, que no tienen ya
incluso si reclutan a 500k mañana, hay que entrenarles (o sea, decirles que o cavan trincheras o les ejecutan) y eso toma su tiempo
@elarquitecto (post #3204)
yo llevo preguntándome un tiempo cómo es que no hay un 1917 entre las tropas rusas
y el hilo ese viene un poco a clarificarlo todo (o casi todo)
lo principal es que hay ejecuciones si te niegas a cumplir órdenes... primero les enseñan vídeos y luego las realizan para dar ejemplo, así que tienen a todo dios acojonado (y con perfil bajo, claro, porque si destacas un poco te vuelan)
luego hacen otra cosa, grupos de 8, que yo estoy medio seguro de que no solo los forman para una oleada, sino que los entrenan ya así, desde el principio, porque así, si uno es un poco "líder" y "sabe" cómo montar un motín, pues solo contará con 7 y poco más, el resto estará pensando en no ser ejecutado y en congraciarse con los superiores o algo así
además, si te hieren, o apechugas con la herida o te ejecutan igualmente, por eso vemos videos de heridos dejados atrás y cosas así, la vida vale poco en rusia
@elarquitecto (post #3204)
Es demencial. Pero Wagner ya no esta y están dando durísimo a los ukros los últimos días. Por eso piden más long range Himars, porque destrozarles las reservas de artillería es clave para estropear su estrategia.
Yo no veo que esto sea sostenible. Pero que van a meter a 500k no lo dudo ni un segundo. Es la lógica rusa, aplastamiento por números. Es inconcebible para una mente normal, pero ha quedado claro que las similitudes entre Rusia y Europa eran meramente epidermicas.
Pues menudo plan. Y si empiezan a avanzar que? A mi me da que entra la otan cada vez menos disimuladamente.
Buena pieza, aunque algo larga, sobre la realidad de una unidad Ukra con GRADs del año de la tana, una fregoneta que pintaron ellos mismos y falta de munición.
@lowfour (post #3206)
pues ahora entendemos lo de los tanquecitos (y los f16 y tal)
tú puedes aguantar las oleadas que te echen en una posición fortificada con 2 ametralladoras y un par de francotiradores o algo así
pero si te vaporizan con obuses, pues la cosa se pone peluda
aunque yo sigo pensando que rusia no está para meter 500k ni del palo, porque su logística es un mojón, pero claro, si les dan una chocolatina y ale, te apañas como puedas en el frente, lo mismo lo intentan, pero llegarán muertos de hambre o algo así
esto no es pillar 10 trenes, cargarlos de reclutas y ale, al frente
meter 500k es bastante más complejo, pero bueno, supongo que ellos conocen su faena y algo tienen pensado para evitar himars y tal
Edited 2023-02-03
hostiaputa!!!!
de todos los putos números enteros, han tenido que elegir el 88
venganomejodas, es que son retrasados????
es que se las ponen botando a los ciberputis, eh??? si ya les flojeaba el discurso anti-nazi, pues... ale, 88 tanques de mierda (lo dice el galileo, que son un poco mierder)
lo dice en un comentario más claramente, están al nivel t-62
bueno, pues la cosa igual no es en primavera, esto dice el galileo
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