Y acabo con la racionalización sueca. TLDR: Está todo fatal, menos los pisos que seguirán subiendo
https://www.di.se/brandstudio/acarix/svensk-ai-teknik-forbattrar-utredning-av-brostsmartor-i-usa/
This determines where housing prices will go
There is a cold wind around housing prices. But there is still an even margin between the reasons for and against a larger price drop. Here are some clues to where the market will go this fall.
Analysis: Nils Åkesson
Housing prices put a damper on Summer Sweden. The market has retreated every month since March. How long and how deep will prices fall this time?
Several major banks predicted during the spring that the fall in Swedish housing prices will all in all stop at around 10 percent. In Stockholm's trend-sensitive condominium market, a correction in that size class has already taken place, and at an accelerating rate.
Indice de precios de la vivienda (vamos que se ha trplicado desde 2005
In June alone, Stockholm apartments fell by as much as 4.5 percent compared to May, according to Valueguard. Preliminary statistics for the first half of July show that prices continued down a further 3.5 percent compared to June.
But to begin with, everyone who bought a home before 2020 should remember that the price rush during the pandemic restrictions was not reasonable. It is rather healthy if a little air blows out of the market.
Mercado de la vivienda durante la pandemia: Hus: Casas y villas, Lägenhter: pisos en condominio
A drop of 25 percent from top to bottom sounds catastrophic but would not take us further back than levels from the time of the pandemic outbreak, according to the housing price index for Sweden as a whole.
Above all, the house prices got a complete meltdown. The appetite for more living space and one's own home ran rampant, at the same time as mortgage rates approached zero along with expenses for visits to restaurants, shopping malls and charter resorts. These factors are now turning into a headwind instead.
A closer look at the two-year pandemic era shows that even after the recent price drops, Stockholm villas are up around 20 and Stockholm apartments around 10 percent compared to January 2020. (See graphic)
Any assessor of where and when the current decline will end needs to digest a series of strong arguments for both the decline and the float in housing prices.
We'll take the bad news first.
Increasing loan rates
Mortgage rates don't just rise. They also leave behind a decades-long trend of shrinking borrowing costs and growing belief that the low interest rate environment was here to stay.
The declines in 2017 and 2008 were relatively quickly recovered, largely thanks to interest rates continuing to fall. That support has now turned into its opposite.
The last word has hardly been said on how high interest rates actually reach before they drop next time. But mortgage borrowers' abrupt awakening to the end of the low interest rate era is the single heaviest driving force for continued lower housing prices.
Pesimistic Households
Interest rate scares, inflationary stress and war in Europe have damaged the mood of households enormously. Not since the 1990s crisis has Svensson given such heavy-handed answers about his finances in the Economic Institute's monthly barometers.
Índice de confianza del consumidor
Those who see their purchasing power eroded by electricity bills, gas bills and food prices - and also see their savings shrink on the stock market - are forgiven if they put their wildest house dreams on the shelf. Less desire to move contributes to more cooling in housing prices.
At the same time, in the second scale there are good reasons not to fear an apocalyptic price race, and that the bottom may be reached even before the end of the year.
Lack of housing
In the debate about housing prices and households' large mortgages, the fundamental fact that the supply of housing has consistently fallen short of demand - for decades - is often forgotten.
It has been an underlying driver of higher prices since the 1990s. Demand has been fueled by both demographic and purely financial factors. The number of ready-to-move-in homes has not kept up.
disponibilidad de vivienda. BRIST: Carencia o falta de pisos respecto a la demanda, Balans: Equilibrio, Överskott: Sobran viviendas
The very word housing shortage appears a bit mossy to all Hemnet surfers who have sold and bought several times in the rising market. But the shortage is still noticeable.
As many as 204 out of 290 municipalities, including the three metropolitan regions and all major higher education municipalities, state that there is a "deficit in housing", according to the state Housing Agency. In 177 of the municipalities, the deficit is estimated to remain even after three years.
Every year since 2000, the population has also grown by more people than the number of housing starts in new production. This is shown by the review of figures from Statistics Norway in a report from Danske Bank dated to May this year.
Construction stop
The price drop in 2017 showed that Swedish housing developers act as an airbag by quickly and sharply reducing the rate of investment as soon as the market sways. It supports prices to the delight of everyone who has bought a home, but of course reinforces the structural deficiency to the detriment of not least first-time buyers as well as cities that have trouble attracting labor and growing. Another reason to pause or scrap projects is that construction cost inflation is up to 14 percent, according to Statistics Sweden's latest construction cost index for May.
Viviendas comenzadas menos crecimiento de la población. Me pregunto si cuentan una persona por vivienda????
No hay especulación. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Economics professor Harry Flam usually points out that the Swedish condominium form minimizes the element of pure speculative purchases and risks of a bubble. The reason is the limited opportunities for apartment purchases with the primary purpose of renting out. It gives the prices support compared to other countries where market corrections are reinforced when small savers quickly want or are forced to sell homes they have held as pure investment objects.
Mercado laboral fuerte
The gloomy households seem to have forgotten that the majority still have their jobs. Unemployment is the lowest in 13 years, according to the Arbetsförmedlingen's way of counting. For people with at least a high school education and a good establishment on the labor market, unemployment is also significantly lower and the number of available jobs is record high. That group overlaps very well with those who can borrow for a home purchase and influence prices. The macro forecasts darkened in the late spring, but the labor market expects a lull rather than a deterioration in the coming years, the Norwegian Economic Institute and Arbetsförmedlingen predicted, for example, the week before midsummer.
Porcentaje de paro
Prices may fall more, but several countervailing forces reduce the risk of larger price drops than to the levels just before the pandemic.
And here comes a twist. Valueguard points out that seasonal effects during the summer months make price declines look excessively dramatic.
Better guidance on how bad the housing market is, we will only know when the autumn semester is back on track. We have to wait beautifully for September's price data, which is delayed until October.
