Guano y no guano en USA.
El no guano es que la inflación interanual baja del 6 al 5.1.
El guano es que la subyacente se está acelerando. Nos suena no?
Que pasa aquí???
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04/12/business/cpi-inflation-fed/inflation-fed-rates?smid=url-share
Inflation most likely moderated in March, but with concerning signs under the surface: A closely watched measure of key price increases is expected to speed back up after five months of slowing down.
The Consumer Price Index, which is expected Wednesday morning, probably climbed 5.1 percent in the year through March, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists, down from 6 percent in February.
But a so-called core index that aims to get a clearer sense of price trends by stripping out food and fuel costs, both of which can be volatile, most likely picked up by 5.6 percent. That would be faster than February’s 5.5 percent increase, and the first acceleration since September.
That mixed picture will come at a challenging economic moment for the Federal Reserve, the government’s main inflation fighter. The central bank has been trying to wrestle price increases back under control for slightly more than a year, raising interest rates to nearly 5 percent from near zero as recently as March 2022. Inflation peaked at about 9 percent last summer, and though it is moderating, the process has been bumpy and gradual. It remains a long way back to the 2 percent inflation that was normal before the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
“Inflation was never expected to decelerate in a straight line,” Tiffany Wilding, an economist at Pimco, wrote in a note previewing the release. “Notwithstanding this report,” she wrote, analysts at the firm expected inflation to continue to fall this year.
Uncertainty over how quickly and completely price increases will cool is being compounded by recent developments. A series of high-profile bank blowups last month could slow the economy, but it is unclear by how much. Some Fed officials are urging caution in light of the turmoil, even as others warn that the central bank should keep its foot on the economic brake and remain focused on its fight against rising prices.
Fed officials target 2 percent inflation, but they define that using a different index: the Personal Consumption Expenditures measure, which uses some data from the consumer price measure but is calculated differently. The measure, which is released a few weeks after the Consumer Price Index, has also been sharply elevated.
On Tuesday, John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the Fed had more work to do in bringing down price increases and suggested that the central bank’s March forecast for one more quarter-point rate move was still a “reasonable starting place.”
But Austan D. Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, suggested that recent bank failures could make it tougher for businesses and consumers to access credit, slowing the economy, stoking uncertainty and creating a “need to be cautious.”
“We should gather further data and be careful about raising rates too aggressively until we see how much work the headwinds are doing for us in getting down inflation,” Mr. Goolsbee said.
The Fed’s latest estimates — released shortly after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March — suggested that officials could lift rates another quarter-point, to just above 5 percent. The central bank will announce its next policy decision on May 3.
Higher interest rates have made it much more expensive to borrow money to buy a house or expand a business. That is slowing economic activity. As demand cools and the labor market softens, wage growth is also moderating.
That could help to pave the way for cooler inflation. When wages are climbing quickly, companies might charge more to try to cover their labor bills, and their customers are likely to be able to afford the steeper prices. But as households become more strapped for cash, it could become harder for businesses to raise prices without scaring away shoppers.
Fed officials are closely watching services inflation — and particularly services beyond housing — for a sense of whether price increases are poised to fade.
