elarquitecto
Estos han debido estudiar en la misma escuela de negocios que estos que dicen que la vivienda ha bajado "muchiiiiismo en Suecia" (ergo "ej buen momento pa comprá").
Property brokers: Larger price falls than the statistics show
Housing prices are now plummeting, according to Valueguard. At the same time, brokers for SvD state that the fall in prices can be much greater than what the statistics show. And banks have begun to ask for fresh valuations.
Halfway into June, condominium prices had fallen by a further more than 3 percent in Stockholm and 4 percent in Gothenburg, according to new figures from Valueguard. This after price falls of 3 and 2 percent in May.
But heavy brokers in Stockholm's inner city tell SvD that the real price drop is even greater. One of them is the inner-city specialist Bahar Nabavi. She says that if you weigh in bids on items that are perceived as too expensive in the new interest rate situation - items that therefore remain unsold - the fall in prices is significantly stronger than what the statistics show.
- The reality is rather a 10-15 percent price drop in Vasastan and on Östermalm (el barrio aspiracional de todos los paletos de dientes grandes que quieren hacer "carrera en la gran ciudad" y el barrio de los pijos, que sorprendentemente es segundo tras Vasastan), says Bahar Nabavi.
She is supported by the Real Estate Agency's Pia-Lotta Svensson, who is also one of Stockholm's heaviest brokers. According to her, the actual price drop on Södermalm is around 10 percent.
- Everyone agrees on a changed market, but the statistics have not really caught on yet, says Pia-Lotta Svensson.
Although the total price fall from May to mid-June is about 6 percent for condominiums in Stockholm and Gothenburg, historical values remain in many databases.
At Booli, which has a database of all permanent homes throughout the country, Josephine Linghammar says that especially automatic valuations have a hard time reflecting sudden market changes.
- In the event of declines, a lot is not sold, and then there is a lack of data for these objects. We know that it is lagging behind, so it can be overvalued, she says.
End prices in all geographies have not yet reached a sufficient level to be fair to all market segments. For example, attractive objects are sold while less attractive ones remain lying around, which can lead to falsely high average prices even at Valueguard, despite the fact that they work with unusually fresh data.
- Systems based on final prices do not take into account whether the value has fallen on unsold homes. If nothing is sold, it is not visible if anything has happened, says Josephine Linghammar, who states that old values remain in the database until new sales are made.
At Innerstadsspecialisten, Bahar Nabavi has a concrete example of really big price falls. Almost identical apartments, second homes of about 60 square meters on Hälsingehöjden in Vasastan that have lost a million in value in a few months. (100K de bajada en 2 meses)
- These are two room apartments that are normally easy to both sell and value. They went for about 8.6 million (860k€) in January / February while the price in May was 7.6 million kronor.
Pia-Lotta Svensson also has examples. She mentions that similar ones on Åsögatan in Stockholm have gone from 3.5 to 2.8 million, and that a typical second on Södermalm, which last winter went for 5.5 million, can now go for 4.6.
To SvD's question to SBAB and Danske Bank about how the banks themselves value in the new situation, the answer is that so far it has not been necessary to change the valuation model due to the different market situation.
"The information that SBAB receives in connection with loan applications generally reflects the situation in the housing market well, so we have not had to change how we act," says Douglas Norström, acting press manager at SBAB.
Danske Bank also leans towards “historical transactions”, values obtained from external platforms.
"We also work continuously with trend analyzes in order to be able to quickly capture what is happening in the market," writes Anneli Adler, head of Danske Bank's private market in an email to SvD.
But in uncertain situations, banks can request written valuations from brokers, something that both Bahar Nabavi and Pia-Lotta Svensson have noticed recently.
- For two or three weeks now, the banks have been a little more specific about wanting super-strong values. The bank does not want a valuation from March. The valuation must be fresh, says Bahar Nabavi.
Pia-Lotta Svensson says that the values used to be valid for six months, but that it should now be fresh produce.
- I recommend a maximum of a couple of weeks old valuation at the moment. If you buy before you sell, the valuation should probably be fresh, she says.
Price slumps are not a new phenomenon, but the unusual thing is that they occur at the same time as war and inflation and during months that are normally the high season in the housing market.
- People feel poorer when interest rates rise. At the same time, the banks' discount rates are even higher,
so I think buyers and sellers will start finding each other again within three months, Pia-Lotta Svensson hopes. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
But according to new market statistics on last week's advertising, sellers and buyers are far apart when it comes to price expectations.
- During week 24, the trend rather strengthened, says Josephine Linghammar, whose data follows all advertised offerings.
Booli's supply statistics show that the decline in the number of bidders per object is stronger and more lasting than normal before the holiday season. In addition, the proportion of price-reduced objects is greater than in previous years - this applies to all types of housing, but especially apartments. A third parameter that, according to Booli, confirms the trend, is that bidding has shrunk so much that acceptance prices seem to be gaining ground. (el timo es que una vez te interesa a una vivienda a precio X, luego hay una subasta muy opaca (seguro que mete bids hasta el puto vendedor que hace que el precio sea X+15% al 25%).
Information about an abnormal market also comes from Hemnet. Of the sales that, despite the inertia, locked in during the first part of June, a fifth ended at levels below the asking price. Especially in central Stockholm and the city of Gothenburg, it is abnormal that a fifth of the closures take place below the asking price.
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