Interesante lo que dice la chica.
Y si, es probable que Putin viera una ventana de oportunidad ya que Trump había partido por la mitad a la sociedad estadounidense. Qué casualidad que tuvieran esas relaciones tan estrechas Trump y Putin, qué casualidad que los ciberputis apoyaran a Trump, los intentos de hackeo... Está claro que Trump es una pieza clave en la desestabilización internacional favorecida por Putin y las teorías de Surkov. Y llegado el momento del paroxismo trumpista asaltando el capitolio por rednecks y youtubers del alt-right... pues nada, la guerra era la culminación de sus delirantes planes de dominación mundial.
Pues va a ser que no. Va a ser que Putin va a morder el polvo de forma inmisericorde. El cabrito quiere una guerra larga porque espera que en la UE en cuanto pasemos un poco de estrecheces vamos a pedir la paz entre Ucrania y Rusia y que vuelvan a abrir el grifo del gas mágico. Pero creo que se ha columpiado brutalmente.
USA y EU van a aguantar una guerra larga, pero me da a mi que quien no va a aguantar una guerra larga es Rusia. A este ritmo de destrucción económica (dicen que no es pa tanto, si claro... claro claro), de aislamiento, de pérdida de ingresos por la energía (siii que le venden muchísimo a China a precio de saldo, NEGOCIAZO!), y destrucción total de su ejército... hasta cuando puede seguir Rusia en sus trece?
Es que como sigan a este ritmo 3 meses más se ven fuera de los territorios ocupados y con unas defensas internas pírricas y la gente protestando por la muerte de sus familiares, por la falta de curro y de azucar (al parecer eso es lo que más les duele, el azúcar!).
No veo yo una guerra larga. No la veo por ningún lado aunque ambos bandos lo repitan. Yo creo que para acojonar al contrario... pero lo de Rusia no se sostiene por ningún lado.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-russias-economy-crumbling-sanctions-central-bank-moscow-inflation-fed-2022-9?r=US&IR=T
Russia's early resilience to sanctions is fading - its economy is on the back foot and Moscow could soon lose its place among the world's energy superpowers.
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today. Ahead of Wednesday's rate hike decision, look out for my rundown of everything you want to know as the Fed makes its latest policy announcement.
Today, though, I'm homing in on another front in the global markets story — specifically, Russia.
Russia has stood up fairly well to sanctions so far this year, initially surprising experts and observers. But all of its maneuvering to isolate itself from the West amid measures to throttle the Kremlin's war financing could leave the country much worse off in the long run.
Below, I'm breaking down what economic experts have to say about Russia and its economy half a year into its invasion of Ukraine.
Let's get started.
- Earlier in the year, Moscow's resilience in the face of sanctions had surprised analysts, but now experts say Russia's isolation from the West is setting up a disaster for its economy.
In retaliation of Western sanctions, Moscow has moved to shut out trade partners in the west, and is instead working exclusively with "friendly" nations that can stomach doing business with a pariah state.
Under Vladimir Putin's guidance, Russia has halted gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and sold huge amounts of fuel supplies to China and India, causing EU policymakers to accuse Moscow of weaponizing energy. Official customs data showed China spent a record-breaking $8.3 billion importing Russian oil products, gas, and coal in August.
But experts told Insider's Jennifer Sor that, underneath that defiance, Russia's economy is withering.
"What they propose to do is a recipe for long-term stagnation," Yuriy Gorodnichenko, a UC Berkeley economist, told my colleague, drawing comparisons to other isolated nations like North Korea, Afghanistan, and Cuba.
The International Monetary Fund forecasted that Russia's GDP will drop by 6% this year, as oil and gas sales made up nearly half of its GDP in 2021.
Plus, Russia's "boycotting" of the dollar — which accounts for 88% of global foreign exchange transactions — means it limits the markets it can operate with.
"What happens is that [isolationism] reduces the number of products that [Russia] can buy," Jay Zagorsky, a markets professor at Boston University, told Insider. "It can only buy Indian agricultural goods, it can only buy Chinese manufactured goods, that sort of thing. And when you limit yourself to one particular country you often end up not getting the highest quality, or the best price."
As of September, Russian seaborne oil exports hit their lowest level in a year, with discounted crude becoming a less attractive option for Asian customers in yet another sign of economic calamity.
And once the EU embargo kicks in this December, Russia's energy sector could be left with an extra 2.2 million barrels per day of spare oil to hand off.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns
Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage
- Confidential document contrasts with upbeat public statements
- Report says key sectors face sharp drop in output, brain drain
Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government.
The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity.
Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level.
All the scenarios see the pressure of sanctions intensifying, with more countries likely to join them. Europe’s sharp turn away from Russian oil and gas may also hit the Kremlin’s ability to supply its own market, the report said.
Beyond the restrictions themselves, which cover about a quarter of imports and exports, the report details how Russia now faces a “blockade” that “has affected practically all forms of transport,” further cutting off the country’s economy. Technological and financial curbs add to the pressure. The report estimates as many as 200,000 IT specialists may leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of the widening brain drain.
Publicly, officials say the hit from sanctions has been less than feared, with the contraction possibly less than 3% this year and even less in 2023. Outside economists have also adjusted the outlooks for this year, backing off initial forecasts of a deep recession as the economy has held up better than expected.
Export Drop
The document calls for a raft of measures to support the economy and further ease the impact of the restrictions in order to get the economy recovering to pre-war levels in 2024 and growing steadily after that. But the steps include many of the same measures to stimulate investment that the government has touted over the last decade, when growth largely stagnated even without sanctions.
Asked about the Bloomberg report early Tuesday in Vladivostok, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov called the forecasts “analytical estimates that we used to calculate what would happen if we don’t resist, don’t do anything,” according to Tass.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“With diminished access to Western technologies, a wave of foreign corporate divestment and demographic headwinds ahead, the country’s potential growth is set to shrink to 0.5%-1.0% in the next decade. Thereafter, it will shrink further still, down to just above zero by 2050. Russia will also be increasingly vulnerable to a decline in global commodity prices, as international reserves no longer provide a buffer.” -Alexander Isakov, Russia economist
Over the next year or two, the report warns of “reduced production volumes in a range of export-oriented sectors,” from oil and gas to metals, chemicals and wood products. While some rebound is possible later, “these sectors will cease to be the drivers of the economy.”
No, Yale - Sanctions Have Not Triggered a Collapse in Russia
A full cutoff of gas to Europe, Russia’s main export market, could cost as much as 400 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) a year in lost tax revenues, according to the report. It won’t be possible to fully compensate the lost sales with new export markets even in the medium term.
Oil Sector Hit
As a result, output will have to be reduced, threatening Kremlin goals for expanding domestic gas supplies, the report said. The lack of technology needed for liquefied natural gas plants is “critical” and may hamper efforts to build new ones.
Europe’s plans to stop importing Russian oil products -- about 55% of exports went there last year -- could trigger sharp cuts in production leaving the domestic market short of fuel, as well.
Metals producers are losing $5.7 billion a year from the restrictions, the report said.
If the world economy slips into recession, the report warns, Russia could see exports cut further as it becomes the “swing supplier” on global markets, with demand for its products disappearing first. That could trigger a plunge in the ruble and a spike in inflation.
On the import side, “the main short-term risk is the suspension of production due to lack of imported raw materials and components.” Over the longer term, the inability to repair imported equipment could permanently limit growth, the report said.
‘Critical Imports’
“There are simply no alternative suppliers for some critical imports,” it said.
Even in the farm sector, where the Kremlin has touted its efforts at replacing foreign supplies, dependence on key inputs could force Russians to reduce their food consumption as supplies dwindle, according to the report.
Restrictions on access to western technology may push Russia a generation or two behind current standards as it’s forced to rely on less advanced alternatives from China and Southeast Asia.
The report warns that sanctions will also force the government to revise a range of the development targets that Putin had set before the war, including those for boosting population growth and life expectancy.
On a sectoral basis, the report details the breadth of the hit from sanctions:
- Agriculture: Fully 99% of poultry production and 30% of Holstein dairy cattle output depends on imports. Seeds for staples like sugar beets and potatoes are also mostly brought in from outside the country, as are fish feeds and aminoacids.
- Aviation: 95% of passenger volume is carried on foreign-made planes and the lack of access to imported spare parts could lead the fleet to shrink as they go out of service
- Machine-building: only 30% of machine tools are Russian-made and local industry doesn’t have the capacity to cover rising demand
- Pharmaceuticals: About 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materials
- Transport: EU restrictions have tripled costs for road shipments
- Communications and IT: Restrictions on SIM cards could leave Russia short of them by 2025, while its telecommunications sector may fall five years behind world leaders in 2022.
