Bueno parece que si que vamos a una buena recesión
As someone who works in commercial appraising, the market has completely dried up for commercial loans (we're getting no work). We're one of the first people in line (before closing) and that means no financing, no construction in a year, no materials being bought, no retailers needing extra staff.
This time next year unemployment will be spiking (not just in banking and real estate but also construction, retail, warehousing, materials manufacturing, transportation, etc). This has all happened within the past month. I went from thinking no recession to deep recession.
Y luego
It's a lot bigger than most people realize. It's everything that isn't an owner-occupied single family home in most cases. That includes retail, office, multi-family (even single family home rentals), institutional users (churches, charter schools, etc.), car dealerships, hotels, subdivision development, business valuation, oil/gas/minerals, highway projects, etc. We do it all, and it's all way, way down except highway projects (i.e. stimulus money that's still filtering through the system).
I think the economy is having a really big pullback.
