Vexler hizo un análisis de este report, que ChatGPT nos ha traducido y resumido convenientemente.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/11/russia-wild-putinism-politics?lang=ru
In 2024, both international observers and Russian citizens have shown diminished interest in Russia's internal political dynamics, perceiving President Vladimir Putin's leadership as unending. Despite ongoing support for the government and its military actions, and the absence of economic or political collapse due to sanctions, the war has profoundly impacted Putin's leadership, elite behavior, and state decision-making processes. The once-stable regime has transitioned into a state of "wild Putinism," characterized by a dilution of central authority and an increase in grassroots zeal.
Prior to the war, discussions emerged about the "desacralization" of Putin's authority, noting his reduced role as an arbiter and his distancing from routine decision-making. Responsibility has been increasingly delegated to ministers, governors, the Central Bank, and security services. This trend was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic and persists today, with Putin focusing on strategic issues and leaving routine matters to others. His involvement in specific cases has become more superficial, offering no guarantees to the parties involved.
Putin's current position can be likened to the load-bearing structure of a building: essential for support, yet not necessarily ensuring stability. For the Russian elite, even those critical of him, Putin represents a safeguard against collapse rather than a guarantor of stability. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the notion of stability has evolved, blending predictable development with geopolitical upheavals. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a significant shock but did not disrupt internal development. The system adapted swiftly to the new reality, with a robust labor market and economic growth—albeit driven by military spending—leading to improved public sentiment. According to the Levada Center, Russians' assessments of their living conditions have improved since the war's onset.
This transformation has led to a state of "wild Putinism," where the central authority's role diminishes, and grassroots initiatives gain prominence. The political regime and elites are adapting to a reality marked by insecurity and unpredictability, reminiscent of "wild capitalism," where the future is uncertain, and individuals, regardless of rank, must be prepared for sudden changes, including potential arrests.
